On February 24, global market focus has gradually shifted towards the Middle East situation, particularly developments related to Iran. Against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks, significant divergence has emerged in the trends of commodities, precious metals, and crypto assets, with investor risk appetite contracting once again.
1. Iran Situation May Escalate, Market Sentiment Grows Tense Driven by the potential escalation of the Iran situation, overall market避险 sentiment has intensified. Over the past few days, the continued deployment of additional US military forces around the Middle East and Europe has been interpreted by the market as preparatory moves for a potential conflict. However, diplomatic channels have not completely closed. Oman's Foreign Minister confirmed that US-Iran talks are expected to resume in Geneva on Thursday. Although negotiations have not broken down, against a clear rise in geopolitical risks, investors are widely adopting cautious strategies, putting noticeable pressure on risk assets.
2. Crude Oil Hits Six-Month High, Transport Risks Become Core Variable Oil prices have shown the most direct reaction to geopolitical risks. Influenced by the Middle East situation, Brent crude rose last week to $71 per barrel, reaching a near six-month high. The core concern for the market currently is not a decline in Iran's own crude oil production, but potential disruptions to oil transport routes through the Persian Gulf. Should shipping through the Strait of Hormuz be restricted, the global energy supply chain would face systemic shocks, which is the primary reason for the rapid increase in oil price risk premiums. In the short term, volatility in the oil market is expected to remain high.
3. Precious Metals Rally Strongly, Gold and Silver Continue Gains Regional tensions have simultaneously pushed up precious metal prices. In early trading today, both gold and silver strengthened: Gold broke through $5,170 per ounce. Silver rose above $87 per ounce. Gold extended last week's strong gain of nearly 8%, reflecting strong market demand for避险 assets. Amid uncertain interest rate paths combined with geopolitical risks, precious metals maintain a foundation for medium-term support.
4. Crypto Market Faces Another Setback, Bitcoin Falls Back to $64,000 In contrast to traditional避险 assets, the cryptocurrency market has shown weakness. Bitcoin dipped to around $64,000, dragging down other major cryptocurrencies in sync. Reasons for this decline primarily include: A significant 15% increase in mining difficulty last week. Current prices being at a cyclical low point. A noticeable impact on miner profitability. With profits being squeezed, some mining companies have chosen to sell reserved Bitcoin to cover operational costs. For instance, Bitdeer Technologies sold its remaining approximately 940 Bitcoins last week, essentially clearing the BTC reserves from its balance sheet. This passive selling pressure from the supply side has further intensified short-term market volatility.
5. Marginal Improvement Signals Emerge from Regulatory Front Despite weak price performance, there have been some positive developments on the regulatory front. Negotiations between the US banking system and crypto enterprises are nearing some form of consensus. Furthermore, the long-delayed Clarity Act is expected to make substantive progress. If the relevant regulatory framework becomes clearer, it could release positive signals for the industry's medium to long-term development.
6. Summary and Outlook The market is currently in a typical 'geopolitical risk-dominated phase': Crude Oil: Driven by transport risk premiums, short-term bias is strong. Precious Metals: Supported by避险 sentiment, maintaining an upward trend. Crypto Assets: Facing supply pressure and weakening sentiment, under short-term pressure. Until the outcome of diplomatic talks becomes clear, market volatility is likely to remain high. Investors are advised to monitor the following key variables: Progress in US-Iran negotiations. The security situation of Persian Gulf transportation. The pace of sales by crypto mining companies. The finalization of US regulatory policies.
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