On July 24th, gold prices experienced a significant decline yesterday. Prices began to soften during the Asian session. A short position taken at the 4130 level during the early rebound was perfectly executed. During the European session, gold prices fell sharply, breaking below 4100 and then continuously declining, eventually reaching around 4040 late in the evening. The short position was manually closed with a profit above 4050, yielding a substantial gain of nearly $80. Gold ultimately settled at $4049, forming a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart.
On Friday, July 24th, the initial jobless claims in the US fell to 187,000, compared to the market expectation of 212,000. The gap was significant, representing an unexpectedly strong performance that the market had not anticipated. The four-week moving average also dropped from 214,750 to 207,500. Such strong employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve can continue to focus on combating inflation without needing to rush into interest rate cuts to support the job market. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September jumped from 68% on Wednesday to 83%. This shift in the numbers explains gold's sharp decline better than any geopolitical news.
Additionally, starting July 24th, the US began imposing tariffs of 10%–12.5% on 60 economies under Section 301. In theory, this is a risk-off move, but current capital flows prioritize the US dollar and US Treasuries for "safe haven and yield," temporarily rendering gold's safe-haven attributes ineffective. Today's focus will be on US and European data: the US July S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminaries and June New Home Sales. Expectations lean towards a hard outcome (PMI not weak, new home sales stabilizing). If realized, this will continue to support the dollar and pressure gold. If the data unexpectedly weakens, gold may get a chance to breathe.
From a technical perspective, after gold retreated to the 4040 line overnight, there was a slight rebound, but the move was small, with the high only reaching around 4067. Prices remained in a narrow range below 4050 into the tail end of the session. This pattern shows weak bullish counterattack momentum, and the market trend has clearly turned bearish. Today, the first step for gold is to see if it can stage a bounce to test the overnight rebound high around 4062-67. At that level, another short-term short position can be considered. The session is likely to continue its downward move. The next downside target is around 4020-15, with a key focus on the psychological 4000 integer level.
In summary, on days like this when news signals are conflicting, the most expensive thing is not the trading fee, but patience. If you understand the chain of events, your trades will be placed with confidence. If you don't, it's best to just watch and wait until Monday. Gold isn't going anywhere. I wish all gold traders a more stable account than their mood today. If you are unsure about specific entry points, feel free to discuss at any time.
Therefore, today's trading strategy is as follows:
Gold: Short at 4035-4040, stop loss at 4050, target 4000-3980, hold if broken. Abandon the short position if it stabilizes above 4060.
Key economic data and events to watch today: Friday, July 24, 2026
21:45 US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Prelim
21:45 US July S&P Global Services PMI Prelim
22:00 US June New Home Sales Annualized
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