The 2022 financial sanctions following the Russia-Ukraine conflict made markets realize that the foundation of the U.S. dollar—the international financial order—could be arbitrarily altered by the United States, leading to a surge in gold and in Bitcoin, which offers cross-border transaction convenience.
The resolution of the historic tariff博弈 in 2025 made markets recognize that the foundation of the financial order—the trade and economic order—could be overturned by the United States itself, causing gold to surge and U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, representing U.S. credit, to fall simultaneously.
In the future, markets will witness that one of the foundations supporting the dollar's tidal cycle—technological appeal—will no longer be a U.S. monopoly. At that point, the sustainability of the dollar cycle will be questioned, and gold will continue to rise; this is the medium-term bullish logic for gold.
Looking short-term, 2026 will most likely see the continuation of U.S. AI advancements, with the global economy experiencing a brief boom from expanded capital expenditures. Copper and gold will execute a textbook-perfect relay; gold prices in 2026 may be weaker than in 2025, and copper is the asset worth anticipating.
Only when a new order framework becomes clear and a new strong international currency steps into the forefront will the "golden" era of gold truly come to an end; this is the long-term logic for gold.
Last year, precious metals were the best-performing major asset class globally, particularly silver. Although silver experienced significant volatility at year-end, partly due to speculative trading activities like short squeezes, the market has begun new reflections and discussions on the trajectory of precious metals for 2026.
2025 was a banner year for surging precious metals; will 2026 still be a year for gold, silver, and precious metals to "dance wildly"?
We know that since 2022, precious metals, led by gold, have experienced a market cycle comparable to the 1970s. This bull run in gold has repeatedly hit new highs, consistently breaking traditional analytical frameworks. Some are puzzled by gold's deviation from real interest rates and the dollar framework, while more have come to realize that the global shifts driving this gold price surge are a once-in-50-year phenomenon.
It is undeniable that the疯狂上涨 in gold prices during 2025 essentially priced in one event: in an epic tariff confrontation, the U.S. actively overturned WTO rules, causing one pillar of dollar credit—the stability of the international order—to begin loosening.
This is both the motivation for central banks buying gold and sparking a "gold repatriation" trend, and the fundamental reason for substantial increases in gold bar and ETF purchases by the private sector last year. This major logic manifested as避险定价 from April to July, and as宽松定价 in August.
Great power rivalry uses tariff confrontations as a means, not an end. True great power competition's decisive point should lie in technological sovereignty and supply chain security. Therefore, we believe the tariff confrontation logic that drove gold higher in 2025 will not be the cause of another gold price surge in 2026, as tariff tensions are expected to ease.
Conversely, the next step following tariff confrontations is supply chain restructuring, coupled with heavy investment in technology capital expenditure. The world is heading towards a phase of capital expenditure expansion. In 2026, gold prices are likely to give back some of the premium priced from excessive避险 and宽松 expectations.
Looking ahead to 2026, our anchor for observing global asset pricing lies in the sustainability of AI capital expenditures. Because AI holds critical importance for U.S. growth, assets, and liquidity, it is, in a sense, another pillar of U.S. dollar credit.
If AI investment persists, the dollar could shakily maintain a level around 90—historically still a high level. However, if U.S. AI capital expenditure is disproved, we would witness the dollar falling below 90, and gold, the protagonist in this episode of dollar credit fissures, would initiate another wave of price increases.
We can outline two scenarios for 2026: sustained AI capital expenditure or its disproval. Under these contexts, gold would either adjust or continue rising, but we lean towards the former scenario. Because 2026 is a midterm election year in the U.S., an abrupt halt in AI capital spending would be an unbearable pain for the country. With inflation at tolerable levels, the U.S. is likely to fully commit to expanding AI.
Risk Warning: Potential for misunderstanding policies and inaccurate analysis of policy intentions and impacts.
Uncertainty remains regarding the sustainability of the consumption recovery. While household consumption has begun warming up this year, the recovery level is limited. Whether it will continue fluctuating at low levels or move closer to normalized growth rates requires close monitoring. Persistent weakness in consumption would constrain economic recovery momentum.
Uncertainty persists over whether the real estate sector can continue improving. The current downcycle in real estate has lasted a considerable time. Although there are signs of a短暂回暖, many indicators remain in negative growth territory, and whether the warming trend can be sustained needs observation.
The impact of tightening monetary policies in Europe and the U.S. might exceed expectations, dragging on global economic growth and asset prices.
Uncertainty surrounding geopolitical conflicts continues, potentially disrupting global growth prospects and market risk appetite.
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