On December 18, gold prices exhibited a bullish consolidation pattern yesterday. After opening higher in the Asian session and reaching 4340, prices retreated, triggering temporary stop-losses for short positions. However, support at 4300 held firm, leading to a rebound that peaked at 4348. Gold ultimately closed at 4337, forming a small bullish candlestick on the daily chart.
On Thursday (December 18), market sentiment was rattled by reports that U.S. President Trump ordered a blockade on all oil tankers entering or leaving sanctioned Venezuela. More sensitive rumors suggested congressional sources hinted at potential military action against Venezuela during Trump's national address. Even without confirmation of extreme measures, the "blockade order" and "war declaration" speculation alone triggered massive safe-haven inflows amid heightened market uncertainty.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve initiated its short-term Treasury purchase program last week, with an initial 40 billion USD operation widely interpreted as a new form of quantitative easing. This liquidity injection expectation not only pressured the dollar but fundamentally altered the cost-benefit calculus for holding non-yielding gold assets. Tonight's delayed November U.S. CPI report (21:30), postponed due to the government shutdown, may serve as the catalyst for gold's next directional move.
Technically, while gold showed strength yesterday, price action remained within the previously identified triangular consolidation pattern. Despite briefly piercing upper resistance, prices have re-entered the pattern during today's session. With clear hourly chart divergence signals, further corrective pullbacks appear likely. Key resistance remains the triangle's upper boundary (4340-50), while support clusters around 4315-10 - coinciding with the 5-day moving average. A break below this level would shift focus to the pattern's lower boundary at 4290, potentially extending toward the 10-day MA near 4270.
In summary, yesterday's surge reflected concentrated reaction to multiple catalysts. With markets now in "event-driven" mode, traders should avoid blind chasing or top-picking. Instead, monitor price reactions around these technical levels following key event outcomes, maintaining light positions with strict stop-loss discipline.
Intraday trading strategy: Gold: Buy at 4322-4320, stop-loss at 4310, target 4350-4360 (hold if broken). Below 4300, consider counter-trend shorts with progressive downside targets.
Key economic events for December 18, 2025 (Thursday): 21:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision 21:30 US November CPI (YoY, unadjusted) 21:30 US November CPI (MoM, seasonally adjusted) 21:30 US Core CPI (MoM/YoY) 21:30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) 21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims (Week ending Dec 13) 21:45 ECB President Lagarde Press Conference
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