Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that since "satellite internet" was incorporated into the new infrastructure initiative, the central government has issued significant policies for five consecutive years to support the development of the commercial aerospace sector. The 2025 Government Work Report further explicitly listed it as a key direction for "future industries" for the first time. China's commercial aerospace industry has already formed a complete chain covering "upstream manufacturing, midstream launch, and downstream application." Vertical scenarios such as remote sensing, navigation, and communication are rapidly expanding, accelerating the release of data operation value. The industry is gradually transitioning from single-point commercialization towards a scalable, replicable closed-loop ecosystem, possessing medium- to long-term growth resilience and potential. The main views of Guotai Haitong are as follows:
Commercial aerospace has been elevated from a peripheral exploration to a national strategic priority, with top-level policy design becoming increasingly clear. Since "satellite internet" was incorporated into the new infrastructure initiative, the central government has issued significant policies for five consecutive years to support the development of the commercial aerospace sector. The 2025 Government Work Report further explicitly listed it as a key direction for "future industries" for the first time. At the national level, a full-chain institutional supply system has been constructed, spanning from market access regulation and quality systems to investment and financing support. Local governments are also creating a competitive landscape through measures such as special subsidies, industrial parks, and infrastructure construction, propelling the industry into an accelerated phase transitioning from "policy incentives" to "institutional underpinning."
Reusable rockets and constellation networking are driving progress in tandem, with landmark technological breakthroughs accelerating their implementation. The cost structure and frequency bottlenecks of commercial aerospace are being reshaped by changes in technological pathways. Private enterprise LandSpace has completed China's first 10-kilometer-level VTVL (Vertical Takeoff, Vertical Landing) test flight, validating multiple core technologies and reaching the engineering prototype stage. Meanwhile, state-owned aerospace enterprises officially unveiled a "fully reusable heavy-lift rocket first stage" plan at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, setting a clear maiden flight schedule for 2030 and systematically advancing rocket reusability capabilities. Concurrently, the construction of low-earth orbit satellite constellations is accelerating comprehensively, with multiple projects like China SatNet and the Qianfan Plan progressing in parallel to seize the initiative in the race for space resources.
The industry is transitioning from "isolated breakthroughs" to "systematic coordination," with the industrial chain increasingly forming a closed loop. China's commercial aerospace industry has already formed a complete chain covering "upstream manufacturing, midstream launch, and downstream application." State-owned aerospace enterprises are platformizing their launch capabilities, the Wenchang Commercial Launch Site is officially operational, leading to an overflow of infrastructure capacity; private enterprises are rapidly emerging in areas such as rockets, satellites, and remote sensing terminals, enhancing synergistic effects. Vertical scenarios such as remote sensing, navigation, and communication are rapidly expanding, accelerating the release of data operation value. The industry is gradually transitioning from single-point commercialization towards a scalable, replicable closed-loop ecosystem, possessing medium- to long-term growth resilience and potential.
Investment recommendations. Guotai Haitong believes that driven by reusable rockets and constellation networking, China's commercial aerospace is entering a critical inflection point, moving from engineering breakthroughs to large-scale industrial implementation. Top-level policy design continues to strengthen, with commercial aerospace explicitly listed as a key "future industry" direction; national aerospace leaders and local governments are collaboratively promoting the construction of infrastructure, launch capabilities, and institutional supply systems. Technologically, China has achieved dual breakthroughs in reusable rockets through "private enterprise prototypes + state-owned aerospace leader planning," thousand-satellite-level constellation plans are accelerating deployment, landmark projects are密集落地, and the global competition for low-earth orbit resources is entering a deeper phase. The industrial chain is extending from manufacturing and launch to include measurement and control, ground terminals, and data operations, with business models gradually being validated, leading to a simultaneous increase in industry景气度 and certainty. Regarding specific stocks, it is recommended to focus on high-quality enterprises with core technological capabilities, industrial synergy advantages, and demand elasticity support. Recommended stocks: AsiaInfo Technologies (688225.SH), CAS StarMap (688568.SH). Related stocks: China Satellite Communications (601698.SH), HoloMW (688682.SH), Jiayuan Technology (301117.SZ), WebSafe (688651.SH), SuperMap Software (300036.SZ), StarMap Measure & Control (920116.BJ), PIESAT (688066.SH), Potevio Technology (002544.SZ).
Risk warnings. Satellite launches falling short of expectations, policy catalysts falling short of expectations.
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