The current global market is in a sensitive phase characterized by high volatility, elevated expectations, and stretched valuations. Since the US-Iran negotiations, global technology equities have accelerated their rise, quickly pushing the valuations of related broad-based indices to historically absolute highs. The ratio of the Nasdaq and Japan/South Korea stock indices to their corresponding government bond yields has already reached extreme historical levels. Furthermore, the market exhibited a dual-strength pattern favoring technology and crude oil prices ahead of the holiday, superficially interpreted as desensitization to the US-Iran situation, with interest-rate-sensitive assets showing no fear of inflation pressure. If this internal logical contradiction continues to amplify, it may imply that a correction is inevitable for one side. Historically, extremely high valuations often precede an accelerated rate of volatility expansion, necessitating heightened vigilance against potential factors for extreme market moves during the holiday period.
Regarding geopolitical conflicts, the protracted negotiations between the US, Iran, and Israel are gradually gaining market consensus, with synchronized increases evident in energy and fertilizer prices. Should incidents involving attacks on civilian facilities, or even production capacity or raw material inventories occur, it would trigger a long-term inflation trading logic, potentially leading to significant strengthening in basic raw material prices and corresponding weakness in financially sensitive assets. Conversely, with market consensus on rising oil prices, one must also consider the potential sharp impact on energy markets if peace is suddenly achieved. The high price volatility and politicized logic since the conflict began make related assets susceptible to larger gaps after the holiday. With the long holiday approaching, guarding against both upside and downside risks from the geopolitical front is crucial. As a lower probability event, if former President Trump exerts pressure on China during the holiday, or even wields tariff measures again, it would directly impact domestic equities, currency, agricultural products, and select industrial goods.
On the monetary policy front, global central banks are closely monitoring inflation trends and have clearly stated they will tighten monetary policy to counterbalance if inflation spirals out of control in the future. Ahead of the Federal Reserve leadership transition, market pricing of the current Fed committee's views is gradually diminishing, but attention is still required on whether officials' stances uniformly turn hawkish. This could force the incoming Chair, once appointed, to adopt a hawkish stance to align with the majority. The Fed Chair confirmation process has entered the Senate voting stage, with a vote not expected during the holiday. If the vote occurs earlier than expected and the nominee unexpectedly fails Senate confirmation, it would signal that neither Wall Street nor the political establishment accepts a compromise choice for Trump, leading to more hawkish interest rate expectations that would dampen financial asset appeal. Conversely, if Chair Powell steps down early to make way for a Trump-appointed dove, it would constitute a short-term positive.
Domestic Politburo meeting variables are fewer, but the high-level meeting's mention of the hog industry segment has sparked market imagination. Recent market focus on factors like agricultural anti-involution efforts, El Niño, and geopolitics continues to rise. Monitoring holiday consumption data is key to assessing whether it injects additional momentum into the grand narrative for the agricultural sector, potentially driving agricultural product prices higher after the holiday in conjunction with the aforementioned triple factors.
The A-share market will be closed from Friday, May 1st, to Tuesday, May 5th, resuming normal trading on Wednesday, May 6th. Hong Kong Stock Connect services will be suspended同步 from May 1st to May 5th, reopening on May 6th. The five-day market closure period faces multiple cross-holiday uncertainties.
Major overseas capital markets will operate normally during the closure. Before the holiday, the US will release several core macro data points, such as March PCE inflation and Q1 GDP data, alongside the Fed's April FOMC meeting. The market widely expects interest rates to be maintained, but subsequent commentary will influence future liquidity expectations. Currently, excessive concentration of US capital expenditure in the technology sector amplifies single-point risks. Should negative events occur, such as a hawkish Fed pivot, tech giants missing profit expectations, or stricter US government AI regulation, a sharp adjustment in US tech stocks is expected to pressure upstream and downstream segments of the A-share industry chain. Geopolitically, while Middle East conflicts have temporarily eased, the macro environment for risk appetite priced on geopolitics remains prone to fluctuations.
Domestically, Q1 data showed weak profits in sectors tied to domestic demand, like real estate and consumption. Focus will be on offline consumption strength during the May Day holiday. It is recommended investors adopt appropriate protective strategies before the holiday, such as reducing long positions or constructing protective positions, to hedge against tail risks during the holiday period.
Following the May Day holiday, volatility risks for the container shipping Europe route index futures are significant, primarily facing influence from two major factors. First, Middle East geopolitical risks; the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict remains highly uncertain, with oil prices staying high. Conflict escalation or de-escalation could impact freight rate premiums in both directions. Second, uncertainty regarding the implementation of shipping company rate hikes; expectations for leading carriers' May rate increases have been partially priced in advance, but weak actual cargo volume and slot transactions could easily trigger price pullbacks. Third, holiday position risk; liquidity interruption during the market closure makes gap openings likely after the holiday, compounded by potential exchange margin adjustments, amplifying position risks. Operational advice includes moderately reducing positions and strictly controlling leverage before the holiday, ensuring sufficient margin; cautiously holding overnight positions, setting stop-loss and take-profit orders in advance; closely tracking geopolitical developments, carrier rate announcements, and Euro-US macro data during the holiday, and responding rationally to post-holiday market fluctuations.
Historically, corn volatility during the May Day holiday has been minimal both domestically and internationally. Domestically, focus is on weather for Northeast corn and North China wheat, policy wheat auctions, and feed rice release policies. Internationally, with the North American corn planting season underway, market attention is on planting season weather and soil moisture. For DCE corn, grassroots grain sales are nearing completion, with market pricing shifting to the annual supply gap and substitutes. Attention is on planting weather in the Northeast and pre-harvest weather for North China wheat during the holiday. Considering the tight supply-demand balance and significantly higher new season costs, downside support is strong, and the price center is expected to gradually rise, with post-holiday spot and futures prices likely to move higher in resonance. CBOT corn sales progress is good, but the loose balance sheet for the old crop caps upside potential. Watch for potential sales to China before Sino-US talks in May. Current US corn planting pace is accelerating with no immediate weather risks, but attention is needed on external macro and crude oil impacts. Additionally, rising wheat prices provide support for corn. CBOT corn is expected to trade firmly during the holiday.
Recent CBOT soybeans and domestic soybean meal markets have seen limited volatility, mainly due to constrained supply-demand themes and lack of new stimuli. Domestic soybean meal has underperformed the external market due to increasing spot supply pressure. Market focus has shifted from South America to North America, with US planting progress at 23%,即将 entering the weather market; minor fluctuations may occur during the holiday due to weather changes. The core theme remains changes in Sino-US trade policy, which will take time to clarify, implying limited risk during the holiday. Domestic soybean meal will primarily follow external market movements, with recent improved market sentiment and gradually emerging support below for spot and futures prices. Medium-to-long-term, current negative factors are mostly priced in, with stable support below domestic spot and futures prices, suggesting a upward shift in the volatility range. Holiday risk points mainly lie in progress on Sino-US trade policy changes and geopolitical events.
Recent market trading reflects expectations that Malaysia is entering a phase of increasing production and inventory buildup. April production increased significantly month-on-month, but export demand is suppressed by high prices. The market anticipates a month-on-month inventory increase in April, which could create selling pressure from the origin. Palm oil has recently shown slight weakness, gradually decoupling from crude oil, and the market has priced in expectations for Indonesia's B50 implementation in the second half of the year. Further strength would require even higher crude oil prices. Domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil inventories are expected to see increases soon, suggesting weak basis recently. Additionally, beware of pulse impacts from crude oil prices.
Currently, it is a bumper year for old-crop oilseed supply, and sales channels for screened finished products this production season are sluggish. Around the May Day holiday, as weather turns hotter, oil mill acquisitions enter the off-season, coinciding with the peak arrival season for US and African oilseeds. This suggests an oversupply of spot peanuts. Domestic peanut acreage has expanded for three consecutive years to a high level. Current assessments of new season planting intentions are stable, with the smaller-weighted spring planting area largely completed and stable. The majority of acreage in main national production regions will be finalized after the May Day holiday. Given that the main peanut contract is for October delivery, post-holiday opening prices have historically tended to rise, but planting seasons in high-production years are prone to declines. It is inferred that peanut futures face downside risks after the holiday this year.
The current phase is the early stage of the Brazilian crushing season. The market awaits UNICA data to assess the effectiveness of the ethanol pathway. If the sugar-ethanol ratio reported during the holiday falls more than expected, the market faces strong upside risks. Secondly, the market is focused on weather conditions for the second half of the year; if holiday-period research further confirms El Niño impacts, it could provide some support to the market. Finally, monitor domestic consumption during the holiday; strong consumption data would reinforce expectations for peak season restocking, creating a bullish impact. Currently, volatility in domestic and international markets is gradually amplifying,建议 investors trade cautiously and hold light positions over the holiday.
The live hog market has recently rebounded from the bottom, with overall spot market sentiment improving and market expectations for policy support strengthening concurrently. Short-term futures are generally prone to rise rather than fall. However, from a fundamental perspective, during the previous price rebound, large enterprises reduced volumes to support prices, and the average slaughter weight stopped falling and began to increase, indicating some postponement of slaughter pressure. Spot market performance shows prices retreated after briefly breaking through 10 RMB/kg recently, with supply pressure easing only modestly and demand acting more as a floor than a sustained driver. Futures market premium expectations remain undiminished, requiring attention to the risk of post-holiday hog price performance falling short of expectations. Recent hog market volatility has been significant overall,建议 investors trade cautiously and hold light positions over the holiday.
The egg market is currently experiencing a temporary supply-demand mismatch for small-sized eggs, coupled with concentrated pre-holiday stocking demand, jointly supporting a阶段性 rise in spot prices and a同步回暖 in futures valuation. As pre-holiday stocking concludes, the pace of spot price increases has slowed but remains high with fluctuations. Supply-demand and cost-side factors are unlikely to provide sudden strong drivers during the holiday. Post-holiday futures are expected to maintain a震荡偏强 trend. Near-month contracts, based on logic of post-holiday demand decline, offer some discount. If holiday demand exceeds expectations and supports egg price increases, near-month contracts could rise after the holiday to narrow the basis.建议 investors reasonably control positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainty risks.
Recent ICE cotton prices continue their strength, driven by worsening drought conditions in the US cotton belt and rising demand for chemical fiber substitutes. Although the USDA report lowered US cotton export estimates, supply contraction expectations still dominate external market sentiment. With domestic-external market linkage, Zheng cotton maintains a偏强震荡 pattern, supported by reduced domestic new-year cotton planting area and rising planting costs. However, downstream spinning mills' restocking willingness remains weak; demand during the traditional "Golden March, Silver April" peak season fell short of expectations, with procurement mainly for rigid needs. The weak supply-demand balance persists, and cotton price increases continue to be constrained by consumption. Focus before and after the holiday is on the evolution of the US cotton drought and abandonment rates, actual spring planting progress in Xinjiang, and recovery in downstream orders. Price range forecast: The main Zheng cotton contract is expected to trade between 15,500-16,500 RMB/ton, while US cotton is预计 at 75-85 cents/pound.
During the May Day holiday, trends will延续 be dominated by overseas macro expectations and fund positioning. Fluctuating Fed rate cut expectations and short-term USD strength pressure precious metals overall. Silver may experience more剧烈 volatility due to weaker liquidity, while platinum and palladium are偏弱 due to industrial demand drag. Beware of volatility spikes triggered by USD fluctuations, Fed rhetoric, geopolitical escalation, and overseas regulatory adjustments. Pre-holiday liquidity contraction and high speculative positioning容易引发极端行情. Also monitor potential positives like strengthened rate cut expectations and mine-side disruptions.
During the May Day holiday, macro-level risks primarily stem from the evolution of the US-Iran conflict. Rapid deterioration leading to a sharp oil price increase could lift inflation and alter economic expectations, posing downside risks for copper prices. Conversely, sustained improvement in US-Iran tensions would maintain a偏强 pattern for copper. Additionally, post-holiday US non-farm payroll data requires attention to US monetary policy changes.
On the supply-demand front, monitor potential supply disruptions during the holiday, focusing on the impact of geopolitical conflict on sulfuric acid supply. Potential risks at the mine stage include armed conflicts in Africa, strikes in South America, or other natural disasters. At the smelting stage, risks include sulfur supply disruptions raising sulfuric acid costs, impacting overseas hydrometallurgical copper production. Significant supply disruptions would notably push copper prices higher. The above judgment is based on the current baseline scenario. If copper production cuts occur due to sulfuric acid shortages (China suspends sulfuric acid exports from May),沪铜 could hit new historical highs above 120,000 RMB/ton.
During the May Day holiday, focus on the risk of a significant rise in primary aluminum prices. Overseas LME aluminum has already broken previous highs, while domestic prices are constrained by the lack of export tax rebates hindering price transmission. The Middle East situation implies a certain global aluminum resource shortage by 2026. If the geopolitical situation worsens during the holiday, further supply contraction is likely; if it eases, demand expectations improve. Therefore, primary aluminum prices have strong upward drivers, and volatility is expected to amplify.
Aluminum alloy prices follow primary aluminum. Tightness in overseas primary aluminum affects China's scrap aluminum imports, keeping raw material supply tight and narrowing the primary-scrap spread. Conversely, alumina demand has weakened significantly due to Middle East production cuts, exacerbating industry oversupply. However, alumina prices are more strongly influenced by bauxite disruptions. If Guinea (34% of global bauxite share) implements export quota policies during the holiday exceeding market expectations, it could drive short-term alumina price increases and raise the medium-term cost center, though unlikely to change its oversupply fundamentals.
During the May Day holiday, focus is on fundamental disruptions for tin, primarily centered on supply-side changes. Although operations at mines in Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have resumed and are generally stable, monitor potential disruptions from local policies or accidents affecting the resumption process. Armed conflicts in the DRC are concentrated in North Kivu and South Kivu provinces, key tin mining belt areas. Therefore, supply interruptions could drive tin prices significantly higher after the holiday. The above judgment is based on the current baseline scenario. If mine suspensions occur due to instability in the DRC,沪锡 highs could reach 480,000 RMB/ton.
During the May Day holiday, be vigilant about macro factors and progress on strait navigation policy adjustments. Indonesian hydrometallurgical nickel production cuts due to sulfur shortages are scheduled for May, but the scale may be offset by new/restarted projects, potentially making the actual reduction less than expected. Monitor nickel inventory data and the impact of international nickel price volatility during the holiday. Focus particularly on the impact of the Middle East situation on sulfur prices. Beware of high sulfur prices retreating, weakening nickel cost support and triggering nickel price declines. Stainless steel correlates strongly with nickel prices; downstream demand struggles to absorb price increases, coupled with increased mill production schedules in May. Key focus is on raw material cost volatility and post-holiday downstream restocking节奏.
During the May Day holiday, monitor the macro environment and Q1 production/sales data from overseas lithium mines. Note whether output and shipments exceed expectations, and the impact of diesel cost fluctuations on Australian mine capacity in Q2. Monitor shipment rhythm changes from overseas lithium resource countries like Nigeria and Zimbabwe. Domestically, watch for the specific implementation timing of permit-related production halts at four mines in Yichun and policy adjustment impacts. Monitor whether the market expectation of a 10% month-on-month capacity increase in May materializes.
Medium-to-long term, crude oil prices are预计 to gradually decline from highs as the war concludes and shipping lanes复苏曲折, but short-term agreement finalization requires complex博弈. Recent US-Iran谈判陷于停滞; negotiation uncertainty keeps oil prices in a high震荡 range, with geopolitical uncertainty posing risks of rapidly amplified short-term volatility.
Beyond the macro risks highlighted for domestic and international markets and demand, potential fundamental risks in the crude oil market exist in three areas: First, high geopolitical uncertainty; a US-Iran deal could cause prices to fall rapidly, while谈判破裂 and conflict escalation could drive prices higher again. Therefore, guard against volatility amplification; prices will大概率 trade in a wide 90-120 range. Second, the OPEC+ meeting on May 3rd; the market watches for continued production increases in June, alongside the UAE's formal exit from OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1st. OPEC+ production changes and the UAE's independent production plans post-exit will be key uncertainties influencing market expectations during the holiday. Third, China-US demand, including domestic holiday consumption and US commercial inventory changes before the summer driving peak; demand stronger than expected could drive prices higher.
From a long-term trend perspective, the black sector is预计 to maintain a low, stable situation, with iron ore downside pressure gradually accumulating and the probability of price declines rising. During the Labor Day holiday, key tracking points include fluctuations in iron ore seaborne prices, overseas mine shipment rhythms, and the arrival volume of mainstream ore. Monitor marginal supply-demand changes. As Chinese miners reach cooperation agreements with BHP, previously locked-in ore varieties will gradually回流 the market, amplifying iron ore oversupply pressure and dragging down prices. The steel market's short-term fundamentals show no significant changes; although steel demand is experiencing seasonal环比回暖, the recovery strength is weak with limited upside space. Mill production rhythms are stable, keeping steel supply steady. Coking coal's disturbance from energy prices is gradually减弱, with market volatility收敛; it will大概率 trade平稳震荡 during the holiday.
Overall risk for the salt chemical sector during the May Day holiday is medium, requiring vigilance against post-holiday price volatility.
Core risk points: First, inventory buildup; downstream shutdowns and continuous upstream production during the holiday容易 lead to rising soda ash, caustic soda, and PVC inventories,压制 post-holiday quotes. Second, weak seasonal demand; downstream sectors like real estate, building materials, and textiles are偏弱, with traditional May demand weakening. Third, external disturbances; if Middle East conflict escalates, causing crude oil price spikes and concentrated overseas plant outages, it could冲击 market sentiment medium-to-short term.
Medium-to-long term, the sector is constrained by the cycle downturn + inventory压制 logic. Demand-wise, soda ash is limited by sluggish photovoltaic and float glass, caustic soda by alumina oversupply, and PVC by weak real estate and infrastructure, offering limited拉动 amid an L-shaped bottoming real estate cycle. Inventory-wise, amid the current high supply + weak demand structure, soda ash, caustic soda, and PVC inventories remain high. Nearing delivery months, pressure from hedging will become more prominent. Salt chemical sector prices will remain受压 medium-to-long term, with little chance of a reversal.
Overall risk for the polyolefin sector during the May Day holiday is medium, requiring vigilance against post-holiday price volatility.
Core risk points: First, external disturbances; similar to salt chemicals, Middle East conflict escalation could冲击 sentiment. Second, weakening demand; May enters the traditional off-season, with packaging, agricultural film, and injection molding demand weakening and downstream operating rates下滑. Additionally, downstream resistance to current high polyolefin prices is strong, limiting both speculative and rigid demand.
Medium-to-long term, the polyolefin sector exhibits a core pattern of cost rigidity providing a floor,双重压制 by capacity and supply-demand imbalances. No trend性单边行情 is expected;冲高 (crude oil impact)回落 (oversupply压制) patterns are more likely. Supply-side, H1 saw阶段性 contraction supported by plant outages and spring maintenance, but H2's集中释放 of millions of tons of new capacity will create supply冲击. Demand-side, domestic demand recovery is乏力, and external demand growth is limited. New capacity and mismatched supply-demand growth rates will cap upside potential.
Influenced by geopolitical conflict, multiple factors support methanol prices at high levels: 1. Shutdowns of Iranian methanol plants affect overseas production. 2. Hindered transit through the Strait of Hormuz and blocked Iranian ports affect methanol transportation. 3. High oil prices raise profits for MTO, methanol's largest downstream, increasing acceptance of high methanol prices and strengthening demand. Holiday risk lies in: if US-Iran tensions cool, leading to resumed Hormuz Strait operations and weaker oil prices, the aforementioned triple supports could失效. Concurrently, low domestic coal-based methanol costs and still-high methanol inventory levels offer no support from cost or inventory dimensions. Post-holiday,甲醇 faces mainly low-opening risks.
Significant downside risk exists post-holiday. Coinciding with the peak domestic fertilizer application period, rapid drawdowns in social inventories have driven futures prices higher. However, the main task of ensuring supply during the peak season suggests overall price stability. Recent market rumors about curbing disguised exports have weakened futures prices. If export restriction policies are implemented during the holiday, including但不限于 limiting blend ratios in compound fertilizers or restricting more fertilizer exports, or if Persian Gulf tensions ease, it could drive尿素 prices to open lower after the holiday.
Post-holiday prices are预计偏弱. Rumors of upstream polysilicon production cuts previously drove futures higher, but prices retreated after being disproven. Following the July last year行情 test, market sensitivity to expectations has钝化, with more rational treatment of near-term supply-demand pressure and inventory reduction difficulty. If new upstream restart news emerges during the holiday, it would be bearish for polysilicon prices, subsequently压制 industrial silicon prices.
Significant upside risk exists post-holiday. Geopolitical conflict has raised costs for the polyester chain, contracted PX and MEG imports, and caused refinery run cuts due to crude import contraction, tightening PTA supply and raising polyester chain prices. Concurrently, downstream PET chip export demand has明显提升. Recent warnings from the US, China, and others for citizens to avoid Iran, and US aircraft carrier movements to the Persian Gulf, mean that if conflict escalates during the holiday, it could drive post-holiday高开 for related polyester chain commodities.
Significant upside risk exists post-holiday. Similar to polyester chain feedstocks, geopolitical conflict has contracted benzene imports and raised costs, while crude supply reduction tightens domestic benzene supply. Styrene export demand is growing. If conflict escalates during the holiday, it would利好 benzene and styrene prices.
During the May Day long holiday, market risks concentrate on two dimensions: uncertainty from crude oil disturbances, and potential variables in rubber's own supply side. Regarding crude oil, the US-Iran situation has shifted from military conflict to a stalemate/negotiation phase, with market risk significantly reduced compared to earlier. However, this factor remains highly uncertain; if conflict re-escalates during the holiday, it would be bullish for SHFE rubber.
On the supply side, since the opening of the tapping season in Thailand's main production region, raw material prices have remained high, indicating that production increases are falling short of expectations. If Thailand experiences extreme adverse weather during the holiday, it would directly suppress regional output, push up raw material prices, and support the potential for a高开 in rubber futures post-holiday. To hedge against crude oil uncertainty and guard against potential supply-side variables,建议 implement risk management and adjust positions reasonably before the holiday.
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