November 13: In the prior trading session on Thursday (November 12), international gold extended its decline as a wave of hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and fading Middle East peace expectations reinforced market bets on further Fed tightening.
The dollar index climbed to a near 19-month high, pressuring gold into a sharp retreat that erased last week's opening gap higher and emboldened sellers, though prices are now approaching the floor of the rising trend channel that has held since 2024 near the 3,800 level, where a touch could first invite a bullish bounce toward the 4,000 mark, while a close below the channel floor would shift focus to the 30-month moving average near 3,630 as a bullish entry, with 4,200 as an upside target.
In terms of price action, gold opened the Asian session at $3,990.11 an ounce, first posting an intraday high of $4,000.13 before running into resistance and grinding lower, extending losses into the 11 p.m. U.S. session to touch an intraday low of $3,852.50, before finally stabilizing and recovering to close at $3,877.38, for a daily range of $147.63 and a loss of $112.73, or 2.83%.
Looking ahead to today, Friday (November 13): international gold opened with a firmer bias, carrying over the late-session recovery and some short-covering, while early weakness in crude oil offered some support, though pressure on gold remains.
At present, the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, inflation readings and Fed officials' remarks are all reinforcing expectations of further rate hikes, and crude oil's failure to extend its decline is likewise weighing on gold.
The key focus remains price action within the channel; whether it breaks upward or downward, traders can follow the move, and until then the market should be treated as oscillating within the channel range.
During the day, attention will be on the U.S. October PPI annual and monthly rates, where market expectations are mixed but, judging by the earlier CPI data, the outcome is likely to be bearish for gold; separately, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will deliver opening remarks at the 2026 Bank Funding Conference, 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins will deliver opening remarks at the Boston Fed's 70th Economic Conference and give a live television interview, and Fed Governor Bowman will attend a seminar.
Based on their prior remarks and hawkish leanings, these speeches will most likely also weigh on gold, so today gold can still be traded primarily by selling bounces.
Technically, on the weekly chart, gold has again run into resistance at the rising trend channel top and pulled back, duly retesting the 100-week moving average, with focus below on the lower Bollinger Band and the rising trend channel floor, where a touch could first invite a bullish bounce toward $3,950, while a close below would open the way for a bearish move toward the 3,600 level.
On the daily chart, gold continues to slide, moving further away from the 30-day line, the middle band and other resistance levels as selling pressure keeps building; although the ZZ indicator suggests the pullback is reaching a bottom, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, pointing to a more bearish outlook and short-term risk of further declines, with the 4-hour or 1-hour moving averages above watched for short entries and the lower Bollinger Band and rising trend channel floor below watched for a bullish bounce.
Specific entry and exit levels are subject to live position notifications: below are preliminary intraday long and short reference levels, for gold, support is watched near $3,850 or $3,810, with resistance near $3,925 or $3,960; for silver, support is watched near $49.20 or $48.30, with resistance near $50.70 or $51.00.
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