On August 10, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration released the "15th Five-Year Plan for Coal Industry Development," which sets targets for 2030. These include further enhancing coal's role as a safety net, optimizing production and development layouts, and increasing the proportion of high-quality advanced production capacity. The plan aims to improve the production, supply, storage, and sales system, boost the capacity share of large modern coal mines nationwide to 87%, and raise the proportion of capacity from intelligent mines to 75%.
From the supply side, the plan strengthens the coal market's fundamental supply base through rigid control of total production capacity and increased industrial concentration. It strictly defines capacity access rules, requiring all new capacity to be included in a unified "capacity ledger" and fully implementing a capacity replacement system to curb disorderly expansion and overcapacity. Simultaneously, it promotes market-oriented and legal measures to accelerate the elimination of backward and inefficient capacity, with mines in resource-depleted eastern and central regions and those with difficult disaster management phased out. Small-scale, low-safety mines in the southwest and northeast will be closed as appropriate. Production capacity will continue to concentrate in the five national coal supply bases: Shanxi, Western Inner Mongolia, Eastern Inner Mongolia, Northern Shaanxi, and Xinjiang, with a target for these five bases to account for over 80% of national output by 2030.
On the demand side, the sector faces a long-term trend of total demand peaking and structural differentiation, with coal consumption entering a plateau phase. The plan targets peaking coal consumption by 2030, with growth potential in traditional coal-consuming sectors like power, steel, and building materials significantly compressed. In the power sector, coal's role is shifting from a primary power source to a stable regulator for peaking and supporting renewable energy, with new power demand primarily met by wind and solar. Coal power will only serve peak supply and grid frequency regulation, slowing the growth of thermal coal consumption. In the industrial sector, comprehensive coal management, low-efficiency boiler replacement, and coal reduction in high-energy-consumption projects are advancing, with coal consumption in steel and building materials stabilizing or declining. Sun Chuanwang, a professor at Xiamen University's China Energy Economics Research Center, noted that the 80% output target for the five major bases by 2030 signals further concentration of production in advanced capacity areas, shifting coal development from dispersed, inefficient models to intensive, modern ones.
Analysts believe that, in the long term, the green and low-carbon transition will set boundaries for the coal market, forcing a restructuring of the entire industry chain. Stricter environmental, energy, and carbon emission constraints will raise operating costs for high-emission mines, driving companies to increase investment in clean washing and energy-saving upgrades. This will create a premium for high-quality clean coal for power and chemical feedstock. The coal industry will no longer compete on production scale but on intelligent capabilities, low-carbon conversion, and diversified downstream processing. Leading companies with integrated industrial chains and green technology reserves will see their long-term value highlighted.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2026, raw coal output from industrial enterprises above a designated size was 380 million tonnes, down 9.7% year-on-year, marking the largest single-month decline in nearly a decade since November 2016. Daily output fell to 12.7 million tonnes, a decrease of 1.34 million tonnes per day. Despite the sharp output drop, coal prices rose. Wind data show that the average spot price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal (Shanxi origin) at Qinhuangdao Port in the first half of 2026 was 769.43 yuan per tonne, up 13.88% year-on-year. Driven by supply contraction and demand resilience, coking coal market prices strengthened overall, with the coal industry's recovery reflected in improving quarterly earnings.
Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co., Ltd. (601015.SH) achieved a reduced loss year-on-year, expecting a net loss attributable to shareholders of 400 million to 340 million yuan in the first half of 2026, with a core net loss of 410 million to 350 million yuan. In the same period last year, the net loss was 462 million yuan, and the core net loss was 521 million yuan. Meijin Energy (000723.SZ) expects a net loss of 450 million to 650 million yuan in the first half of 2026, with a core net loss of 480 million to 680 million yuan. In the same period last year, the net loss and core net loss were 674 million yuan and 679 million yuan, respectively. Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (601225.SH) expects net profit of 11.229 billion to 11.687 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, up 3.591 billion to 4.049 billion yuan or 47% to 53% year-on-year. Core net profit is expected to be 9.517 billion to 9.975 billion yuan, up 2.294 billion to 2.752 billion yuan or 31.76% to 38.1%.
Li Xiaoyu, an analyst at Shanghai Ganglian, believes that in the second half of the year, coking coal is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance and a fluctuating but strong trend, with prices higher than the first half. Gai Qingwen, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that in the second half, cost support will remain strong, while total demand control will limit upside, leading to a weak-then-strong pattern for coke prices, with the overall trend moving upward. Cinda Securities points out that the coal industry is now in the early stages of a new cyclical upswing, with fundamentals and policy converging. High-quality coal companies, leveraging resource endowments and cost control, will see earnings certainty and anti-cyclical attributes prominent. Against the backdrop of market style rebalancing, the high-dividend, low-valuation coal sector offers strong hedging value and is expected to become a core defensive allocation for funds. Guojin Securities suggests focusing on a potential upward trend driven by new inventory replenishment around September in the short term. In the long term, it expects a double boost from a rise in thermal coal prices on EPS and valuation. For coking coal, supply may remain tight, but short-term spot prices could face pressure due to the off-season demand. However, subsequent domestic demand policies could act as a catalyst for the sector. Current valuation and earnings expectations for the coking coal sector are low, suggesting opportunities from structural market moves driven by expectation gaps.
Related stocks: CHINA SHENHUA (01088) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.3 billion to 29.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, up 6.9% to 21.1% year-on-year, driven by increased volume in coal chemical, railway, port, and shipping operations. YANKUANG ENERGY (01171) expects a net profit of about 7.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, up about 2.5 billion yuan or 53% year-on-year, with core net profit of about 4.5 billion yuan, up about 100 million yuan or 2%. CHINA COAL (01898), which focuses on coal production and trading, coal chemicals, mining equipment, power generation, and financial services, produces thermal coal, coking coal, polyolefins, urea, and methanol. The company has a significant scale advantage in the coal mining business, with industry-leading technology in coal mining, washing, and blending, and has production costs lower than most coal companies nationwide.
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