The Mid-Autumn holiday has just ended, and after three more trading days, A-shares will enter the National Day long holiday.
Compared with the Mid-Autumn holiday, the National Day holiday lasts longer, with a closure period of seven full days.
During those seven days, the biggest uncertainty comes from changes in overseas policy and market conditions.
Looking back at A-share performance before and after the National Day holiday over the past decade, the cost-effectiveness of holding shares through the holiday may be better than holding cash.
However, as noted above, the biggest risk of holding shares through the holiday comes from overseas market volatility and changes in overseas policy.
From 2016 to 2025, over the past ten years, the A-share market rose on the day before the National Day holiday as many as 7 times and fell 3 times.
On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, the A-share market rose 6 times and fell 3 times, overall showing a pattern of more gains than losses.
Now review market performance in the week before and the week after the National Day holiday over the past decade.
Among them, data for the week before the National Day holiday over the past ten years show 3 gains and 7 losses, meaning the probability of an A-share decline in the week before the holiday was higher than the probability of a rise.
In the first trading week of the National Day holiday, however, more gains than losses appeared. Specific data show that in the first trading week after the holiday, the A-share market rose 7 times and fell 3 times, so the stock market showed a pattern of more gains than losses in that first post-holiday week.
Over the past ten years, including 2018 and 2024, volatility on the first trading day and in the first trading week after the holiday was very large.
Taking 2018 as an example, affected by the overseas policy environment, the A-share market fell 3.72% on the first trading day after the holiday.
Analyzing the trend in the first trading week after the holiday, the A-share market posted a single-week decline of 7.6%, bringing relatively large investment losses to investors who held shares through the holiday.
Taking 2024 as an example, at that time A-shares were in a phase of accelerating gains.
On the first trading day after the holiday, the A-share market posted a single-day gain of 4.59%.
In the first trading week after the holiday, the A-share market posted a single-week decline of 3.56%, and volatility in the first trading week after the holiday was relatively large.
In addition, judging from stock market gains and losses in the first trading week after the holiday, apart from the relatively large volatility in 2018 and 2024, market volatility in the remaining years was not high.
Based on the market volatility in rising years, the average gain in the first trading week after the holiday was about 1.5%, which is not especially large.
From the perspective of aggressive and steady investors, the cost-effectiveness of holding shares through the holiday may be higher than that of waiting with cash.
However, for conservative investors, holding cash and waiting may be safer.
Although market data from the past decade show that the probability of an A-share rise in the first trading week after the holiday is relatively high, in extreme cases the market may post a single-week decline of 3% to 7%, which would mean huge investment losses for investors who hold shares through the holiday.
Compared with aggressive and steady investors, conservative investors place greater emphasis on the safety of principal, and the seven-day holiday contains relatively many uncertain factors.
Once the overseas market environment changes significantly, or if there are certain variables in the overseas policy environment, then it will have a relatively large impact on the post-holiday A-share market, which is also the biggest uncertainty of holding shares through the holiday.
From the perspective of aligning with mature overseas markets, the closure time of the A-share market should be shortened as much as possible.
According to the practice of mature overseas markets, the continuous closure of the stock market should not exceed three trading days.
Otherwise, the trading time of the A-share market will be noticeably shorter than that of mature overseas markets, and an excessively long closure can easily lead to a sharp increase in post-holiday stock market volatility, bringing more uncertainty to the market after the long holiday.
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