Market data from September 22, 2026 shows the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 111,380 yuan per tonne and settled at 111,320 yuan per tonne, marking a 1.03% gain from the prior session's close. During overnight trading, the contract opened at 111,840 yuan per tonne and closed at 111,610 yuan per tonne, adding another 0.35% relative to Tuesday afternoon's settlement price.
According to SMM data, spot premiums for SMM 1# electrolytic copper against the SHFE 2610 contract ranged between 1,150 and 1,600 yuan per tonne, averaging 1,375 yuan per tonne, which was 550 yuan per tonne higher than the previous day. The morning session saw the SHFE 2610 contract open with a gap up, initially dipping to 110,820 yuan per tonne before rebounding above 111,000 yuan per tonne and rallying to an intraday high of 111,750 yuan per tonne, with midday settlement at 111,570 yuan per tonne. The inter-month backwardation stood between 430 and 610 yuan per tonne, while import losses against the 2609 contract ranged from 1,200 to 1,460 yuan per tonne.
Sales sentiment in the Shanghai region improved to 3.65 and procurement sentiment to 3.75, both showing sequential gains. In early trading, holders raised quotes alongside transaction volumes, with notable divergence in premium levels across different brands. Available circulating supply in Shanghai is expected to remain tight tomorrow, and pre-holiday stockpiling continues to support spot premiums, although the arrival of limited imported cargo is unlikely to alleviate supply conditions. Premiums may still have room to rise, but elevated copper prices, a widening backwardation, and high spot premiums are raising downstream procurement costs. Market acceptance of high premiums could weaken, and if premiums continue to surge sharply, rigid demand may soften, warranting caution over potential negative feedback from high-price convergence.
On the geopolitical front, US President Donald Trump reiterated during his address to the 81st United Nations General Assembly that Washington would reach an agreement with Iran following the November midterm elections. Trump projected that oil prices would drop sharply if the Iran conflict concludes, potentially falling below pre-conflict levels. Regarding artificial intelligence, Trump firmly rejected international agreements aimed at restricting technology development, stating the US completely opposes any attempt to establish a global mechanism to regulate AI. He dismissed concerns about risks from uncontrolled frontier models, asserting that America will continue advancing AI and does not intend to stifle a technology that could prove "greater than the Industrial Revolution."
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has traveled to the United States for the UN General Assembly and is scheduled to deliver a speech on September 23. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with US President's Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in New York. Iran outlined conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including the immediate lifting of the US maritime blockade, unfreezing of all Iranian assets, and an end to wars across regional fronts. President Trump stated that US officials held a three-hour meeting with the Iranian delegation that was highly productive, with another session to be arranged in the near future.
On the mining side, spot treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) for imported copper concentrate in China declined further last week, pressured by stronger procurement demand following the commissioning of new smelting capacity and persistently tight global concentrate supply. Argus's weekly smelter TC index fell by $10.30 per tonne and 1.03 cents per pound between September 11 and September 18, while the trader TC index dropped by $26 per tonne and 2.60 cents per pound. In the smelter market, a 40,000-tonne cargo of copper concentrate changed hands, comprising 20,000 tonnes of clean concentrate and 20,000 tonnes of Timok concentrate, reportedly at a discount of $25 per tonne to the index. Another 10,000-tonne cargo of clean concentrate for Q4 shipment was concluded at minus $233 per tonne. With new smelting capacity coming online, spot treatment charges face further downward pressure. China's Yingkou Jianfa Shenghai ignited the first phase of its new copper smelter in Yingkou, Liaoning, on September 12, adding 300,000 tonnes per year of refined copper capacity.
In the trader market, a 10,000-tonne cargo of Escondida concentrate for November shipment was concluded at minus $310 to minus $301 per tonne. Another 10,000-tonne cargo of Antamina A concentrate, also for November loading with M+2 pricing, traded at minus $340 per tonne. A third transaction involved 10,000 tonnes of Quebrada Blanca 2 concentrate for December shipment at minus $353 per tonne with M+0 to M+4 pricing.
On the smelting and import front, Vedanta announced that its subsidiary Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) has resumed operations at the Nchanga smelter in Zambia following a maintenance shutdown lasting over three months. The Nchanga smelter, built at a cost of $350 million and commissioned in 2010, is among the country's largest smelting facilities with annual copper capacity of 311,000 tonnes. KCM stated the outage was initially planned for 60 days but ultimately took 106 days to complete due to significant critical work identified during detailed inspections. The refurbishment, costing approximately $40 million, represented the first major overhaul in eight years. According to Zambia's mining ministry data, KCM produced 80,215 tonnes of copper in 2025.
On the consumption side, copper prices traded in a narrow range last week, and with the month-end approaching, downstream consumption upside remained limited. However, some processing enterprises accelerated export orders, keeping market demand relatively stable. Overall order performance across the downstream market was lackluster for the week, prompting downstream firms to maintain a strategy of purchasing only for rigid needs on dips.
Inventory data showed LME warehouse warrants declined by 1,625 tonnes to 254,250 tonnes, while SHFE warrants fell by 1,503 tonnes to 20,805 tonnes. As of September 21, domestic exchange inventory of electrolytic copper stood at 74,800 tonnes, down 14,300 tonnes from the previous week.
Strategy: Copper is viewed with cautious optimism. With the Fed rate hike landing and its negative impact released, macro sentiment has partially recovered, yet the potential risk of further rate increases persists. Combined with Middle East geopolitical disruptions, commodities broadly remain in a high-volatility environment. Domestically, as the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays approach, industrial metals benefit from low inventories and pre-holiday stockpiling, showing resilience, but end-user demand has only marginally improved and has not yet entered a full peak season. Tightness at the mining end and raw material shortages remain real constraints, with macro expectations and industry fundamentals in a tug-of-war defining the market. At this stage, the recommendation remains to prioritize buying hedges on dips, with an entry range of 109,000 to 109,500 yuan per tonne. Should copper prices advance to around 111,800 yuan per tonne, companies with selling hedges may appropriately initiate short positions, while speculative traders are advised against overly aggressive shorting. Arbitrage strategies should be put on hold, with risks including COMEX inventory outflows and overseas liquidity stampede scenarios.
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