Shortly after the conclusion of the National People's Congress sessions, the Chinese economy has delivered a performance that exceeded expectations. Data released on March 16 by the National Bureau of Statistics for January and February showed that imports and exports surged by double digits, consumer spending growth accelerated, and investment shifted from decline to growth. The three key drivers of economic growth all gained momentum.
Against a backdrop of a volatile international environment, how did the Chinese economy withstand pressure and achieve a stable start? Wen Bin, Chief Economist at China Minsheng Bank, pointed to two key factors: the effects of policy measures becoming evident and a rebound in endogenous momentum. "On one hand, the front-loading of special bond issuance has boosted infrastructure investment, and the property market is showing early signs of a mini-recovery. On the other hand, better-than-expected exports and ongoing price recovery have driven a rebound in manufacturing investment, while the extended holiday period also boosted household consumption, particularly in services," Wen explained. The combination of these forces supported the economic foundation at the beginning of the year.
Two economic indicators stood out in this report. The first is foreign trade. In the first two months, the total value of goods imports and exports reached 7.7321 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%, accelerating by 13.4 percentage points from December of the previous year. Exports saw a significant rise of 19.2%. This data surpassed market expectations. Given that the base for foreign trade was already high last year, achieving such growth rates this year sufficiently demonstrates the strong resilience and dynamic development of China's foreign trade.
Another noteworthy detail is that the rebound in goods imports was greater than that of exports. This sends two signals: domestic demand is recovering, and China is providing new opportunities for trade development to countries worldwide.
The second highlight is consumption. Willingness to spend is a key indicator of economic vitality. In the first two months, total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 8.6 trillion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points from December. Catering revenue surpassed one trillion yuan, indicating a bustling consumer market.
Since the start of the year, driven by consumption-stimulating policies and the impact of the extended Spring Festival holiday, market sales have rebounded significantly. The potential for service consumption has been unleashed, and new forms of consumption have gained momentum. For instance, the online short drama market is booming, with platform data showing transaction volumes on short drama platforms grew by over 30% in January-February. New business formats such as green consumption, health consumption, and debut economy are increasingly contributing to consumption growth.
Wen Bin noted that this year's government work report maintained the priority of expanding domestic demand among its key tasks, calling for efforts to stimulate endogenous consumer momentum and implement policies to promote consumption, thereby driving sustained consumption growth.
The government work report set this year's economic growth target between 4.5% and 5%. The strong performance in the first two months lays a solid foundation for achieving the annual target. "Looking at the released data, the overall performance is significantly better than market expectations, fully reflecting the strong vitality and resilience of the Chinese economy. We have every reason to be confident in China's economic development," stated Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, offering reassurance.
With a powerful start and a favorable beginning, the Chinese economy in the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period is poised for a promising outlook.
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