U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with short-term bonds initially finding support and outperforming after President Donald Trump stated he was making a "final decision" on a preliminary agreement to extend a ceasefire with Iran. However, this rally narrowed in late trading following U.S. media reports that Trump concluded a two-hour meeting on Iran without making any decision.
The 2s10s and 5s30s yield spreads were both near their daily highs late in the session, as investors awaited more details on the potential agreement heading into the weekend. Demand related to month-end duration extension also appeared to play a role, providing additional support for Treasuries during the day.
Shortly after 3 p.m. New York time, yields on the short and intermediate parts of the curve fell by up to 1 basis point, while long-end yields rose by up to 2 basis points on the day. This led to a widening of approximately 1.5 basis points for the 2s10s spread and nearly 3 basis points for the 5s30s spread. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note traded near the lower end of its weekly range, around 4.425% to 4.53%.
Most of the day's gains occurred in the early session. A surge in futures volume pushed prices higher after Trump said he was "heading to the Situation Room now for a meeting to make a final decision on Iran." This advance was partially eroded over time as traders awaited further details.
In late trading, WTI crude oil futures fell by approximately 1.5%, which, alongside potential month-end portfolio rebalancing flows, provided support for Treasury prices.
As of 3:52 p.m. ET, the 2-year Treasury yield was at 4.0123%; The 5-year Treasury yield was at 4.1459%; The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.4492%; The 30-year Treasury yield was at 4.9907%; The 2-year to 10-year Treasury yield spread was 43.49 basis points; The 5-year to 30-year Treasury yield spread was 84.31 basis points.
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