Amid shifting global industrial and energy dynamics due to U.S.-Israel tensions with Iran, corporate earnings expectations for U.S. stocks have shown significant divergence. According to Goldman Sachs research, Micron Technology alone contributed approximately 51% of the upward revisions in S&P 500 earnings expectations, emerging as the primary driver of this round of forecast upgrades. Data indicates that consensus EPS growth projections for Micron in 2026 surged by 605%, with earnings estimates rising 93% since February 27—nearly doubling in just weeks. Goldman Sachs attributed this shift primarily to explosive demand for AI infrastructure and increased defense technology spending, which accelerated semiconductor demand and were quickly incorporated into analyst models. Prior to earnings releases, Goldman had already designated Micron as a top conviction pick, projecting 2026 EPS approximately 19% above consensus estimates. Beyond Micron, Broadcom was another significant contributor within the information technology sector. Outside of tech, nearly all remaining upward revisions to S&P 500 earnings stemmed from the energy sector, reflecting how geopolitical conflict has reshaped profit expectations for oil and gas companies. Specifically, ExxonMobil and Chevron together contributed about 24% of the index's earnings upgrades, with their respective earnings estimates rising 44% and 67% since February 27. Additionally, Occidental Petroleum saw a remarkable 251% increase in earnings expectations, the highest among energy stocks, though its smaller weighting limited its contribution to only about 2% of the index's upward revision. ConocoPhillips, Valero Energy, and EOG Resources also performed strongly, each contributing roughly 3% to 5% to earnings upgrades. Analysts noted that this round of earnings revisions displays clear structural characteristics: on one hand, AI-driven semiconductor demand is boosting leading tech companies; on the other, rising energy prices are significantly improving the profit outlook for oil and gas firms.
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