Corn: Neutral to Bullish 1. Market Focus: Market rumors suggest a policy document will be issued on May 7th regarding rice, involving a total of 16.9 million tons with a starting bid price of 1490. The auction will be divided into special sessions for central state-owned enterprises (11.9 million tons) and feed mills (5 million tons). There are signs that the previously widespread market concern about a supply-side expectation gap is being addressed, prompting concentrated exits by bullish positions. However, high market enthusiasm combined with low inventories of feed corn and soybean meal make it unrealistic for the auctions to clear at the base price. Additionally, with the new season wheat harvest approaching, the pace of hog capacity reduction is slower than expected, limiting the impact of the special auctions. Since previous bullish positions have not been fully liquidated, the overall upward trend remains intact. However, corn prices are expected to trade within a narrow range until clearer judgments are formed on the rice and wheat markets. 2. View Summary: There are indications of an orderly exit by previously bullish capital. On the physical market, deep-processing enterprises maintain a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy, and inventories have not seen a significant upward revision. Feed demand remains sluggish. Prices are expected to fluctuate within a range this week, with support seen at 2,370 yuan/ton. No clear resistance level is identified for the upside currently.
Soybean Meal: Neutral 1. The possibility of a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has triggered commodity funds to sell off bullish agricultural positions. Overnight, CBOT soybeans fell back to the previous fluctuation range of 1160-1200 cents. Attention should be paid to the potential volatility of geopolitically-driven trades. 2. As of May 5th, drought conditions cover 27% of the US soybean production area, unchanged from the previous week. Drought remains concentrated primarily in the Plains and parts of the Southeast. Concurrently, frost weather in the northern Corn Belt may temporarily slow the emergence pace for soybeans and corn. 3. Institutional estimates compiled by Reuters show an average market forecast for the new US soybean yield at 53 bushels per acre and ending stocks around 364 million bushels. If the official report aligns with these expectations, it would indicate a relatively ample supply structure for the new season US soybeans, potentially limiting the upside potential for US futures prices this year. 4. The Dalian soybean meal market lacks new fundamental drivers in the short term and is primarily tracking US futures. Prices are expected to maintain wide fluctuations. View Summary: Adopt a range-trading strategy. Monitor the performance of the September soybean meal contract within the 2900-3100 yuan/ton range.
Eggs: Neutral to Bearish Spot prices in main production areas are stable. The spot price in Guantao, Hebei is quoted at 3.82 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Seasonal demand-side support is limited; the recent futures price increase is driven more by short-term spot market conditions and sentiment. After entering May, fundamental pressures are gradually emerging. The 86.44 million chicks added in January 2026, according to Zhuochuang data, will begin laying eggs intensively in May 2026, leading to a continuous release of new production capacity. Simultaneously, the current flock of older laying hens is entering a phase of accelerated culling, offsetting some of the new production pressure. However, if normal culling ages are maintained after May, the volume of culls may decrease. Demand is gradually entering the traditional off-season. Coupled with the upcoming rainy and hot weather in the south, which increases the difficulty of egg storage, terminal traders are becoming more cautious in their purchasing, putting downward pressure on prices. View Summary: The drivers for the short-term spot price increase have largely been realized. Bullish positions should focus on profit-taking exit opportunities. For deferred contracts, consider short-selling opportunities on price rallies.
Hogs: Neutral Live hog spot prices are fluctuating. The average spot price in main production areas yesterday was 9.70 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day. This week, domestic piglet prices have generally increased by 10 yuan/head. Regional feedback indicates slightly higher restocking enthusiasm in the north compared to the south. The current mainstream transaction price for weaned piglets is 230-260 yuan/head. Spot hog prices continue to bottom out at low levels, with ongoing losses in the breeding sector leading to passive capacity reduction among some small and medium-sized farms. However, large enterprises have stronger risk resistance, resulting in a slower pace of overall capacity reduction. The pattern of ample supply remains unchanged. Yongyi data suggests planned slaughter volume in May is expected to decrease by 2.74%. While large-scale farms generally plan a slight reduction, the slaughter volume from medium-sized contract farming operations is expected to increase compared to April. View Summary: Adopt a range-trading strategy for nearby months. Deferred contracts, due to their high premium, face short-term adjustment pressure.
Risk Warning: This information is prepared by the analyst team of the futures company's Research & Development Department. The information contained herein is derived from publicly available sources. While CITIC Securities Futures strives for accuracy and reliability, it makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of this information. Trading based on this information is undertaken at one's own risk. This report does not constitute personal trading advice and does not consider individual clients' specific trading objectives, financial situation, or needs. Clients should consider whether any opinions or suggestions in this information suit their particular circumstances.
Comments