According to media reports citing informed sources, Pakistan has conveyed a revised proposal from Iran aimed at ending the conflict to the United States, which has received the document. This development, coupled with recent statements from Iran's foreign ministry emphasizing a focus on "ending the war" and continued discussions with Oman regarding Strait of Hormuz passage mechanisms, collectively indicates that communication channels between the U.S. and Iran remain open. This represents the latest marginal positive signal for potential negotiations. However, from a professional macro trader's perspective, this is merely a "potential beginning of risk premium降温," not an indication that Middle East geopolitical risks or the threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade have been resolved. Key obstacles remain, including whether the U.S. will accept Iran's revised proposal, whether the Iran nuclear issue will be temporarily shelved or addressed concurrently, whether stable passage through the Strait of Hormuz can truly be restored, and whether the U.S./Israel and Iran can sustain a long-term cessation of mutual military strikes.
Nevertheless, as investors in the stock market have collectively bet aggressively before, another "TACO moment"—potentially driving a major rally in global risk assets such as tech stocks closely linked to AI computing infrastructure, cryptocurrencies, and high-yield corporate bonds—may be imminent. Financial markets are effectively repricing on Monday, anticipating that U.S. President Trump's forthcoming response and tweet rhetoric regarding Iran's latest revised proposal will likely follow his consistent pattern of maximum pressure/threats: setting a deadline first, then delaying or extending it—the classic so-called "TACO moment." Recent geopolitical developments suggest the White House's current reaction function appears to be "conducting military threats against Iran while monitoring negotiation progress, while also retaining the option to positively extend a brief ceasefire or a long-term ceasefire agreement aimed at ending the war." These seemingly contradictory signals are why the market is beginning to price in another short-term version of a "TACO moment" that could propel a significant rebound in risk assets like stocks—especially as Trump's recent "left-brain-right-brain conflicting" rhetoric has increasingly convinced the market that, at least in the short term, a "TACO" trading moment is approaching.
The increasingly popular Wall Street trading strategy—TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)—originated during April 2025 when Trump launched an unprecedented "reciprocal tariffs" campaign globally. At that time, traders bet either that the U.S. administration would withdraw its tariff threats, or that even if implemented, they would be far less severe than Trump's threats and insufficient to significantly hinder U.S. economic expansion. The term "TACO" was coined by a Financial Times columnist to describe Trump's vacillation on tariffs following his "Liberation Day" speech on April 2, 2025, ultimately predicting he would back down, leading to a strong stock market rebound. When asked about "TACO" at a press conference, Trump became furious, calling the question "vicious." The "TACO" strategy is now widely adopted by traders as one of the hottest strategies; whenever Trump issues new, more aggressive tariff threats or other major threats causing market plunges, global equity and bond investors bet he will ultimately retreat or that the actual implemented policies will be significantly weaker than his verbal threats, leading them to buy the dip aggressively at opportune lows, heavily betting on a short-term market rebound.
Is a TACO Moment Approaching Again? Renewed U.S.-Iran Communication via the "Pakistan Channel" Influences Strait of Hormuz Dynamics According to the latest media reports, Pakistani sources confirm that Iran's revised proposal to end the war has been shared with the U.S., which has received it, indicating parties are attempting to break the deadlock. Furthermore, Iran conveying the revised proposal to the U.S. via Pakistan suggests both sides have not chosen to further sever communication channels. The Iranian foreign ministry's emphasis on "focusing on ending the war" and continued discussions with Oman on Strait of Hormuz passage mechanisms imply negotiation topics are shifting from mere military confrontation to a newly tradable positive framework involving "long-term ceasefire arrangements + Strait of Hormuz passage + security mechanisms." On the 18th local time, an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson stated that Iran continues to communicate with the U.S. through Pakistan. He mentioned that the U.S. formally rejected Iran's proposal in writing last week, and Iran received the U.S. perspective via Pakistan. Iran has also conveyed its views on these U.S. points to Pakistan, and communication is ongoing. Additionally, he stated that media reports regarding Iran's uranium enrichment are incorrect and lack factual basis. The spokesperson further noted that Iran is currently focused on ending the war, but the U.S. and Israel still pose threats to passage security in the Strait of Hormuz; he emphasized that Iran holds no hostility towards neighboring countries like the UAE.
Some analysts suggest that if substantive bilateral ceasefire frameworks, Strait of Hormuz passage mechanisms, and a significant decline in oil prices materialize subsequently, global tech stocks—especially core players in the AI computing supply chain, semiconductors, software, and long-duration growth stocks closely tied to AI computing infrastructure—could indeed experience a new round of risk appetite recovery. However, a more accurate description currently is that "a new upward window for a counteroffensive is actively opening." The core logic behind the market's continued cautious sentiment lies in the fact that tech stocks' biggest external pressure stems from surging global long-term bond yields driven by high oil prices boosting inflation data, alongside Federal Reserve hawkish monetary policy risks. As long as U.S.-Iran talks release credible progress, reducing oil price risk premiums, it would alleviate concerns about reaccelerating inflation, thereby reducing upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. However, if negotiations seesaw and the Strait of Hormuz cannot achieve stable passage, oil prices may remain elevated. Recent international oil prices—Brent crude futures and WTI crude futures—remain high due to Middle East risks, Strait of Hormuz blockade uncertainties, and regional attack incidents, indicating the market does not fully believe geopolitical risks have been resolved.
U.S.-Iran Talks Ignite the Risk-On Spark! AI Computing Frenzy Continues to Drive Tech Stock Bull Market Revelry The emergence of Pakistan and Oman channels for U.S.-Iran communication indeed compresses the most extreme risk of war escalation. However, against the backdrop of an unstable Strait of Hormuz passage mechanism, still-high energy prices, and inflation and interest rate pricing leaning hawkish, risk assets should not equate "negotiation signals" directly with "risk清零 (risk清零)." This aligns with Goldman Sachs' view of "Iran risk叠加利率风暴 (Iran risk叠加利率风暴)": once geopolitical risks ease, it opens a window for tech stock counteroffensives, driving global capital towards Risk-On (i.e., "fully embracing risk assets"). But if oil prices remain high, long-term yields and real interest rates will continue to suppress valuation expansion. Goldman Sachs' stance towards AI computing supply chain leaders like Nvidia, AMD, Micron, and Broadcom remains "continue being long, but buy hedge insurance." The view from Goldman Sachs' trading desk, led by veteran trader Louis Miller, is clear: profit revisions for AI computing infrastructure chains—including AI GPU/ASIC, data center CPU, HBM/NAND/HDD storage, optical interconnects, and data center power chains—remain strong, representing a fundamental-supported main theme. However, AI trading has become significantly crowded and entered a phase with relatively scarce catalysts, requiring protection for year-to-date paper gains.
The AI computing investment theme remains one of the strongest fundamental assets in global equity markets, even viewed by some funds as "defensive growth" with earnings certainty amid high oil prices, high inflation, and high interest rate environments. But the market's biggest risk factor has shifted from "whether there is AI demand" to "whether AI valuations can withstand利率风暴 (利率风暴) and反复 (反复) geopolitical risks." Goldman Sachs trading desk's latest strategy recommendation is to continue betting on AI scarcity and earnings upgrades, but必须 (必须) control tail risks through volatility, long protection, and low-quality shorts. Therefore, Goldman Sachs advises maintaining long exposure to the AI trading theme while hedging via short-dated AI basket puts, momentum portfolio protection structures, or long-dated S&P 500 volatility longs. Goldman Sachs' view indicates the AI theme trade increasingly combines "offensive + defensive trading" characteristics rather than being a pure bubble trade, because with the four super cloud providers' capital expenditure projected to grow at least 38% year-over-year to $755 billion in 2026, this spending scale exhibits unparalleled resilience compared to all industries. However, Goldman Sachs also cautions that AI trading may experience increased volatility due to leveraged semiconductor products and crowded positioning.
According to stock market bull leaders like Wedbush, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Yardeni Research, the global equity market狂欢 (狂欢) driven by the AI computing investment frenzy is far from over. Yardeni Research founder Ed Yardeni expects the S&P 500 to break through 8000 by year-end and reach 10000 within three years. In comparison, the S&P 500 closed at 7408 last Friday. Institutions like HSBC and CFRA have also followed suit in raising target prices, believing profit expansion围绕 (围绕) AI applications and AI computing infrastructure is the core driving force. These bullish forces argue that despite短期 (短期) technical overbought signals, the stock market仍有 (仍有) further upside, with optimistic expectations surrounding AI红利 (红利) supporting high-valuation sectors. As the AI computing infrastructure construction wave led by tech giants forms a path similar to早期 (早期) railways, power grids, broadband, and cloud computing—"capital expenditure first, application爆发 (爆发) later"—for the AI computing supply chain and the AI computing bull narrative driving the global equity bull market, the soaring upward trajectory may be far from finished.
On April 30, the three cloud computing super giants—Microsoft, Google, and Amazon—delivered impressive results on the same night, highlighting the超预期 (超预期)爆发 (爆发) speed of cloud computing businesses benefiting from the AI mega-trend, causing Wall Street to重新定价 (重新定价) AI's commercial returns. The latest research report from Morgan Stanley's analyst team indicates that the五大 (五大) hyperscale tech giants (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle) are projected to have combined capital expenditure of approximately $800 billion in 2026,有望 (有望) exceeding $1.1 trillion in 2027,上调 (上调) from the previously forecasted $950 billion. Morgan Stanley's analysts emphasize that the core logic behind these massive capital investments is: heavy investment and capacity building first, followed by recouping through scaled commercial revenue and ROIC based on AI computing resources. The暴增 (暴增) in cloud computing backlogs is the most direct evidence that this logic can succeed; the超预期 (超预期)爆发 (爆发) speed of these giants' cloud computing businesses is causing Wall Street to重新定价 (重新定价) AI's commercial returns.
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