Protein meals declined on Monday as CBOT soybeans fell amid a weaker Brazilian real and the arrival of the U.S. harvest.
U.S. soymeal dropped while U.S. soyoil gained. Brazilian President Lula's re-election sent the real down roughly 12%, significantly boosting the competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans and hurting U.S. export prospects.
The weekly U.S. soybean export inspection report showed 2.476 million tonnes inspected in a single week, above the market expectation of 1.5-2.05 million tonnes, with China accounting for 66.71% of the total.
The post-close crop report showed the U.S. soybean harvest at 79%, in line with market expectations.
Domestically, protein meals moved lower, accelerating their decline in the night session. The spot market remains loose, with soymeal inventories at high levels. Live hog prices are sluggish, and the market is concerned about forward demand. The decline in Brazilian soybean import costs is pressuring the market, and participants will continue to monitor soybean costs, soymeal demand expectations, and capital flows.
Oils and fats closed lower on Monday, with BMD palm oil following the weakness in neighboring markets. Traders are awaiting confirmation of Malaysia's proposed export tax exemption.
Shipping data showed Malaysian palm oil exports for October 1-25 rose 46.9%-67.7% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing slightly from the October 1-20 period. U.S. soyoil and Canadian rapeseed gained, tracking the rally in crude oil.
Statistics Canada data showed September canola deliveries rose to 2.75 million tonnes, up from 1.92 million tonnes a year earlier.
Domestically, oils and fats broke below key levels, following the decline in import costs. Soybean oil outperformed palm oil, which outperformed rapeseed oil. On the spot side, inventory pressure remains significant, with soybean oil and palm oil stocks at elevated levels. Going forward, the market will continue to watch geopolitical conflicts, changes in import costs, and end-user consumption.
Live hog futures continued their downward trend, with both near-month and far-month contracts adjusting in tandem, and Monday's session saw far-month contracts leading the decline. In mid-October, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the national breeding sow herd fell to 36.02 million head as of the end of the third quarter of 2026, with the year-on-year decline widening to 10.7%, marking the first substantive break below the normal baseline of 37.5 million head.
The pace of capacity reduction continues to steepen, yet live hog prices remain narrowly range-bound at low levels. The divergence of "accelerating capacity clearing while prices fail to recover" has drawn sustained market attention. On October 26, the prevailing live hog transaction price in the Heilongjiang market was 9.22 yuan/kg, flat versus October 25, with the market still characterized by strong expectations and weak reality.
Overall, since the National Day holiday, the supply side of the live hog market has continued to add weight, spot hog prices have declined seasonally, and low-priced pork has entered the market, pressuring prices lower. The pattern of strong expectations and weak reality remains unchanged, capping upside for hog prices.
Egg futures edged higher on Monday, with the main 2612 contract closing up 0.09% at 3,305 yuan per 500 kg. On the spot side, Zhuochuang data showed that as of October 26, national egg prices stood at 4 yuan per jin, up 0.11 yuan per jin from October 25.
In producing areas, Ningjin pink-shell eggs were 3.85 yuan per jin, and Heishan brown-shell eggs were 4 yuan per jin; in consuming areas, Puxi brown-shell eggs were 3.96 yuan per jin, and Guangzhou brown-shell eggs were 4.3 yuan per jin. End-user digestion was acceptable, demand improved somewhat from earlier periods, most traders bought and sold along with the market, and egg prices in most consuming markets rose while a few remained stable.
The rebound in spot egg prices from low levels helped futures prices stabilize after their decline, but continued weakness in neighboring commodity prices may weigh on market sentiment, leaving egg futures in a choppy adjustment phase.
Corn futures continued to trade sideways on Monday, with weighted contract open interest holding at a high level of 2.3 million lots. The northeastern production region is currently in the peak period for new grain market arrivals, and prices are under overall pressure.
Deep-processing enterprises have ample inventories and remain cautious in purchasing, mainly buying on an as-needed basis. Sinograin has gradually started procurement, with the Hulin direct warehouse offering 1.03 yuan per jin for third-grade corn at 14% moisture and the Fujin direct warehouse at 1.0125 yuan per jin, providing support and shifting sentiment. After prices earlier fell below planting costs, farmers' reluctance to sell intensified, and recent sessions have seen mixed price movements.
The corn harvest in North China is fully complete, and quality this year is better than in previous years. Reluctance to sell at the grassroots level has increased markedly, and market grain availability has fallen sharply. Feed mills and deep processors have raised purchase prices and increased buying enthusiasm. This year's North China corn has good quality, high test weight, and low toxin levels, making it favored by downstream enterprises.
Prices in southern consuming areas are relatively firm, but losses in downstream breeding have weakened feed demand, with corn purchases mainly for essential needs; imported barley, sorghum, broken rice, and other substitutes continue to squeeze corn's market share.
Overall, short-term supply pressure remains, but there are no clear signs of improvement on the demand side yet, and corn prices are expected to run weak in the near term. The market will watch the pace of corn arrivals in Northeast China going forward.
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