Gold prices moved in a slightly bullish range on Tuesday, opening and rising during the Asian session. After breaking through the 4400 mark, long positions were entered above it, followed by a gradual uptrend, though the move was not significant. A manual take-profit was executed near 4435 during the US session, yielding a modest gain of about $30. The metal ultimately closed at $4408, forming a small bullish candle on the daily chart.
On Thursday, the CPI data released the previous evening offered no surprises. The US July CPI came in at 3.4% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, while the core CPI was 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month—all four figures exactly matched expectations, with the core annual rate marking the lowest since March 2021. Interestingly, the US Dollar Index settled at 99.96, edging up 0.15% rather than declining. This suggests that "soft inflation" has eased rate hike expectations, though Middle East oil price risks continue to support the dollar. The simultaneous rise in gold and the dollar typically occurs during a "risk aversion plus marginal decline in real interest rates" window, but its sustainability depends on tonight's data. Do not assume that gold only rises when the dollar weakens; the current logic is driven by "reduced urgency for rate hikes."
Tonight, another key data point is due—the US July Producer Price Index (PPI). While CPI measures consumer-side prices, PPI reflects producer-side costs, and changes in PPI often foreshadow shifts in CPI. If tonight's PPI is also moderate, rate hike expectations could ease further. However, if PPI surprises to the upside, markets may fear that "inflation hasn't gone away," potentially pressuring gold prices in the short term.
From a technical perspective, two consecutive daily candles with long upper shadows (one bearish on the 11th, one bullish on the 12th) indicate institutional selling pressure around the 4440-4450 zone. The RSI (14) sits in overbought territory at 68-72, while the MACD histogram shows no bearish crossover but a slowing slope—the trend remains bullish, but momentum is fading, signaling that this is not a time for blind chasing. Key support levels to watch are 4400 (psychological pivot), 4388 (MA100), 4370-4360 (MA5 and yesterday's low zone), and 4330 (bullish lifeline; a break below would weaken the trend).
In summary, the core contradiction for gold today is this: the CPI has set aside the knife of a September rate hike, but the PPI and Middle East oil prices could pick it back up. Therefore, a high-level consolidation and washout during the day is normal, with the real action kicking off at 20:30 tonight. The direction is clear, but there is no rush. The CPI has confirmed the trend, and the next step is getting into a good position. For intraday operations, the recommendation is: go short on gold at 4423-4425, with a stop loss at 4435, targeting 4360-4350. Hold if broken.
Key economic data and events to watch today (Thursday, August 13, 2026): 20:15 - Fed's Hammack speaks; 20:30 - US Initial Jobless Claims (week ending August 8); 20:30 - US July PPI year-on-year; 20:30 - US July PPI month-on-month; 20:40 - Fed's Barkin discusses economic outlook.
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