On January 20th, the three major A-share indices opened slightly higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.06% and the ChiNext Index gaining 0.09%. On the market, lithium mining concepts performed actively, with Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. and Tianqi Lithium Corporation rising over 1%; sectors like baijiu (white liquor) and real estate were among the top decliners. Looking ahead, Guosen Securities believes the spring rally is not yet over, suggesting that periodic fluctuations may present good layout opportunities. Guosen Securities classifies historical spring rallies into several types: minor rebounds during range-bound or bear markets, 'V'-shaped recoveries following earlier pullbacks, and typical bull runs fueled by accelerating capital inflows. The essence of the current spring rally is that the A-share bull market, which began on September 24, 2024, continues to deepen; the current accommodative policy environment remains unchanged, and the bull market's upward trajectory in terms of time and space is not yet complete. Therefore, the current spring rally is not a minor rebound seen in volatile scenarios but leans more towards a significantly rising market with high tradability, offering further room for development; even if short-term changes in liquidity cause periodic fluctuations, they still represent layout opportunities. The technology theme remains dominant, suggesting a short-term balanced allocation. Reviewing style outperformance during spring rallies in past years reveals no stable pattern favoring either growth or value styles. For sector allocation in this spring rally, Guosen Securities believes that, first and foremost, driven by the AI wave, technology and growth sectors remain the primary theme of this bull market, recommending attention to sub-sectors where AI applications are being implemented. Additionally, allocation opportunities in some value sectors, such as non-bank finance, resource products, baijiu, and real estate, may also be worth noting. Shenwan Hongyuan believes the short-term market uptrend may be entering a consolidation phase. Shenwan Hongyuan observes that the 2026 opening rally was clearly driven by incremental fund inflows and improved risk appetite. While the upward industrial trends in commercial aerospace and AI applications are objective facts, characteristics like strong momentum and excessive trading in the market's performance are also evident. With short-term excessive trading being restrained, the market uptrend may enter a consolidation phase. Moving forward, the intensive resource allocation required for economic transformation needs to "proceed steadily and sustainably"; similarly, the long-term process of bringing in sustained long-term capital and optimizing household asset allocation requires a "steady and sustained" approach. A-shares have a foundation for medium-term upward movement, so this "steady and sustained" approach can balance short-term fluctuations with long-term goals. As the short-term market momentum effect subsides, rotation into other sectors may occur, potentially leading to an overall contraction in the赚钱 effect. Patience is advised, waiting for further catalysts from the economy, policies, and industries to alleviate contradictions in fundamentals, valuations, and micro-structure. The medium-term outlook maintains a judgment of a two-stage upward movement for A-shares: in 2025, the technology structural rally is in a phase of extension and expansion within high valuation territory, with some investment directions reaching historically extreme valuations sequentially entering a phase of high volatility; if this phase encounters fundamental disturbances, it could trigger quarterly-level adjustments. A new upward phase is anticipated in the second half of 2026, with the core logic being the resonance of multiple positive factors, including cyclical improvement in fundamentals, a new stage in technology industry trends, the migration of household asset allocation towards equities, and the increasing prominence of China's influence. Oriental Securities believes that structural opportunities in the market still exist. Oriental Securities posits that with the continuous explosion in AI computing demand and the accelerated upgrading of global power grids, power grid equipment—spanning technology and energy—is expected to play a significant role in this year's market trends. Overall, the recent proactive cooling measures by management have alleviated previously localized overheating but do not affect the overall pattern of the cross-year rally; structural opportunities in the market still exist, and while fund trading directions may shift, the technology sector remains the mainstream investment direction, with this adjustment providing an entry opportunity for investors.
Comments