On April 9, Beijing time, international oil prices reversed their previous day's decline and rose sharply, driven by renewed tensions in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As of 10:04 a.m. Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures had increased by 3.47%, climbing back above $95 to $97.69 per barrel. Brent crude futures opened 2.45% higher and continued to rise, gaining 2.85% to $97.45 per barrel.
In contrast, international precious metals prices lost momentum after the previous day's rally. Both spot gold and spot silver in London declined. By 10:04 a.m. Beijing time, spot gold had fallen 0.2% to $4,710.016 per ounce, briefly dipping below the $4,700 mark during the session. Spot silver opened lower and trended downward, dropping 1.3% to $73.138 per ounce.
Late on April 8, following a temporary ceasefire agreement involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, Israel continued strikes on Lebanon. Iran warned that it would consider withdrawing from the ceasefire if the attacks persisted. The White House stated that Iran's initial 10-point proposal was unacceptable and had been discarded, but a subsequent "more reasonable and concise" proposal could serve as a basis for U.S.-Iran negotiations. Shortly after, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, issued a statement on social media accusing the U.S. of violating three key terms of the ceasefire agreement and declaring further talks meaningless under these conditions. Subsequently, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again.
According to the International Energy Agency, more than 40 critical energy assets have been damaged, triggering the most severe energy supply disruption in history. Research firm Rystad Energy noted last month that repair costs for the region's energy infrastructure would exceed $25 billion, covering engineering, construction, equipment, and materials.
Consulting firm Eurasia Group forecasts that oil prices will remain above $80 per barrel this year, even if hostilities cease. Henning Gloystein, the firm's Energy Director, stated, "Even if a ceasefire in the Middle East allows the Strait of Hormuz to reopen quickly, supply tightness will persist." He estimated that approximately one-third of the refineries in the Gulf region have been damaged by airstrikes, resulting in significant capacity loss. "It will take at least several months to restore operations once hostilities end," he added.
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