Geopolitical developments took center stage as US President Donald Trump stated during his address at the 81st UN General Assembly that the United States will reach an agreement with Iran following the November midterm elections. Trump predicted that if the Iranian conflict concludes, oil prices could drop sharply, potentially falling below pre-conflict levels. On the issue of artificial intelligence, Trump firmly opposed international agreements restricting technological advancement, saying the US completely rejects any attempt to establish global mechanisms to regulate AI. He dismissed concerns about potential risks from uncontained "frontier models," asserting that America will continue pushing AI development forward and does not want to stifle a technology that could prove "greater than the Industrial Revolution."
On the Iranian side, President Masoud Pezeshkian traveled to the United States to attend the UN General Assembly, with a speech scheduled for September 23. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in New York. Iran outlined conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including the immediate lifting of the US maritime blockade, the unfreezing of all Iranian assets, and an end to hostilities across regional fronts. President Trump noted that US officials held a three-hour meeting with the Iranian delegation, describing it as highly productive, with another round of talks to be arranged in the near future.
In futures market activity on September 22, 2026, the main Shanghai gold contract opened at 941.68 yuan per gram and closed at 933.02 yuan per gram, down 0.76% from the prior session's settlement. Trading volume reached 41,087 lots with open interest at 129,725 lots. During the overnight session, the main gold contract opened at 936.96 yuan per gram and settled at 941.10 yuan per gram, up 0.87% from the afternoon close. For silver, the main Shanghai contract opened at 16,260.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 15,909.00 yuan per kilogram, down 1.17% from the previous settlement. Volume stood at 264,542 lots with open interest of 120,308 lots. In overnight trading, the main silver contract opened at 16,046 yuan per kilogram and settled at 16,273 yuan per kilogram, gaining 2.29% from the afternoon close.
US Treasury yields showed the 10-year note at 4.96% on September 22, up 0.07% from the prior day, while the 10-year versus 2-year spread stood at 0.20%, down 0.02%. In Shanghai Futures Exchange positioning data for the Au2610 contract, long positions changed by +3 lots and short positions by -3 lots versus the previous day. Total gold contract volume reached 342,211 lots, down 0.60% from the prior session. For the Ag2610 contract, long positions changed by -44 lots and short positions by +2 lots. Total silver contract volume reached 649,759 lots, up 2.07% from the previous day.
Precious metals ETF holdings showed the gold ETF position at 1,055.98 tonnes as of the latest session, an increase of 0.57 tonnes from the prior day. The silver ETF position stood at 15,375.88 tonnes, a decrease of 53.38 tonnes. In arbitrage metrics, the domestic gold premium stood at -2.83 yuan per gram, while the domestic silver premium was -75.38 yuan per kilogram. The gold-to-silver ratio on the Shanghai Futures Exchange main contracts was approximately 58.65, changing 0.41% from the prior session, while the offshore ratio was 65.93, down 2.57%.
On the fundamental side, monitoring of the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market for September 22 showed gold trading volume of 37,436 kilograms, down 7.26% from the prior session. Silver trading volume reached 413,666 kilograms, down 12.05%. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, while silver delivery volume was 14,910 kilograms.
Gold Strategy: Cautiously Bullish
Visible progress in US-Iran peace talks, with President Trump stating the US will reach a deal with Iran after the November midterm elections, suggests improving market risk sentiment. This could slightly bolster demand for gold investment, leading to expectations that gold prices will maintain a range-bound but firm pattern in the near term. The Au2610 contract is expected to trade within a range of 935 yuan per gram to 950 yuan per gram.
Silver Strategy: Cautiously Bullish
Silver follows a similar logic to gold, with prices also expected to sustain a range-bound firm pattern. The Ag2610 contract is projected to fluctuate between 15,500 yuan per kilogram and 16,600 yuan per kilogram.
Arbitrage: Hold Off
Options: Hold Off
Risks
Overseas liquidity risks and sustained exit of speculative positions remain key factors to monitor.
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