Zheshang Securities: Onshore Wind Bidding Sees Volume and Price Rise, Offshore Wind and Global Expansion in Focus

Stock News12-18 14:21

Global wind power demand is expected to maintain steady medium-to-long-term growth, with new installations projected to reach 186.2GW in 2026, a 14.0% year-on-year increase. In Europe, offshore wind turbines are entering a peak installation phase with accelerated capacity scaling—average unit capacity rose from 8.0MW in 2022 to 10.1MW in 2024.

Domestically, onshore wind bidding prices continue to recover while volumes remain high. The rebound in prices, coupled with expanding exports, is driving wind turbine manufacturers’ gross margins back into an upward trajectory. Key insights from Zheshang Securities include:

1. **Global Wind Demand Outlook**: - Traditional markets (China, Europe, Americas) and high-growth regions (Latin America, Middle East, India, and other Asia-Pacific) will fuel expansion. - Global new installations are forecast at 186.2GW in 2026 (14.0% YoY), comprising 161.5GW onshore (+7.7%) and 24.7GW offshore (+85.6%). - The 2024–2030 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is estimated at 10.9% (onshore: 9.3%; offshore: 26.3%).

2. **European Offshore Wind Acceleration**: - 2025–2030 installations are projected at 43.04GW (CAGR: 32%), led by the UK, Germany, Poland, Netherlands, France, and Denmark. - Average turbine capacity climbed from 8.0MW (2022) to 10.1MW (2024), reflecting rapid scaling.

3. **Domestic Market Trends**: - **Price/Volume**: Onshore wind (with towers) bidding prices rebounded from a low of ¥1,553/kW in April 2024 to ¥2,248/kW by October 2025. Ex-tower prices rose from ¥1,133/kW to ¥1,687/kW. - Q1–Q3 2025 turbine bidding volume hit 127.3GW (+16% YoY). - **Profit Recovery**: Margin improvements are driven by price recovery and export growth. Overseas orders totaled 34.3GW in 2024 and 19.28GW in 2025 (Jan–Sep).

**Investment Recommendations**: - **Turbine Makers**: Goldwind Science & Technology, Yunda Holdings, Mingyang Smart Energy, Sany Renewable Energy. - **Offshore Foundations/Towers**: Dajin Heavy Industry, Haili Wind Power, Titan Wind Energy, Taisheng Wind Energy. - **Submarine Cables**: Orient Cable, Zhongtian Technology, Hengtong Optic-Electric. - **Components**: Jinlei Technology, Deli Jia, Times New Material, Riyue Heavy Industry, Guangda Special Material.

**Risks**: Lower-than-expected demand in key markets (China, Europe); weak domestic bidding outcomes; slower European offshore project progress; supply chain price declines; rising raw material costs.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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