In advanced economies, employment in call centers, software publishing, management consulting, and advertising services has fallen well below historical trend levels. The labor market impact of AI adoption is particularly pronounced for early-career workers, who face the most significant employment disruptions.
Goldman Sachs reports that artificial intelligence has already been widely deployed across advanced economies, with overall adoption rates hovering between 15% and 20%. The Wall Street investment bank's analysis reveals that AI is exerting growing pressure on labor markets in major developed nations, though the effects vary considerably across industries and job levels.
Where to begin: According to the firm's research, since the second half of 2022, job vacancy growth in sectors more susceptible to AI automation has generally decelerated, with Germany, Australia, and the United States showing the most pronounced trends. In a report released Wednesday, Goldman Sachs noted that in the information and communications services sector—the area most affected by AI—employment growth has slowed across nearly all major advanced economies since 2022.
However, outside the United States, employment levels in this sector remain near or even above long-term trend lines in other countries. When Goldman Sachs extended its analysis to other AI-exposed industries, it found that additional developed markets are also facing employment headwinds, though the overall impact has been relatively moderate.
Examining key sectors: The report highlights that in call centers, software publishing, management consulting, and advertising, employment levels have fallen substantially below historical trends across developed markets. Call centers have experienced the most severe impact: employment in the United States is 39% below trend, Canada is 33% below, and Germany is 27% below. Goldman Sachs states that these figures indicate AI-driven employment pressure has already materialized in industries where mature automation tools are in place.
Entry-level workers face greater strain: The negative effects of AI are more pronounced for those just entering the workforce. Goldman Sachs analyzed employment growth data across more than 800 occupations, finding that junior positions have absorbed the strongest impact from AI. Some roles with high AI substitution risk have also seen negative effects, though to a lesser degree.
Looking at the broader labor market, in France, Canada, and the United States, a 10% increase in AI exposure for a given occupation only reduces annual headcount growth by 0.1 percentage points. But for entry-level positions, the impact is dramatically different: Australia experiences a drag exceeding 0.6 percentage points, while the United States sees more than 0.2 percentage points.
In summary, the investment bank concludes that global employment data now clearly reflects AI-driven hiring pressure, though the impact remains confined to a small subset of industries and roles. These labor market shifts are unfolding against a backdrop of rapid AI adoption in developed economies.
Goldman Sachs consolidated 11 cross-country surveys on AI adoption and estimates that penetration rates in major developed markets range from approximately 15% to 20%. France, the United States, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom lead the pack, while Italy, Japan, and New Zealand trail behind among advanced economies. In major emerging markets, AI adoption is estimated to fall between 10% and 15%.
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