BOC International released a research report stating that Musk has once again indicated plans to build 100GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity. His capacity expansion plan may extend upstream to polysilicon and silicon wafers, benefiting core equipment for polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules. In the long term, material companies have room for market expansion. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has clarified the "anti-internal competition" theme for the PV industry, and the sector is expected to likely engage in voluntary production restrictions, optimizing the landscape for cells and modules. China is accelerating the industrialization of space-based photovoltaics. The firm maintains an "Outperform" rating on the industry.
The MIIT has again clarified the "anti-internal competition" theme for the PV industry, focusing on rationalizing industry chain pricing. According to a report, on January 28, 2026, the Minister of MIIT convened a forum with PV industry entrepreneurs, attended by officials from the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, key PV enterprises, and industry association representatives. The meeting clarified that "anti-internal competition" is the principal challenge in standardizing PV industry governance. It proposed utilizing comprehensive measures including capacity regulation, preventing monopoly risks, intellectual property protection, and promoting technological progress to guide the PV industry back to a track of healthy competition and rational development through market-oriented and rule-of-law means. The report believes that, guided by the principles of "preventing monopoly risks" and "capacity regulation," the industry will likely engage in spontaneous production limits. This will ultimately help rationalize prices across the industry chain, preventing scenarios where one segment enjoys excessive profits while others incur losses. Overall, this meeting served as a year-end review and outlook; "anti-internal competition" is expected to remain a key theme for the PV industry in 2026. Against the backdrop of rapidly rising silver prices, the competitive landscape for cells is expected to optimize; terminal module manufacturers can navigate the cyclical trough through "anti-internal competition price increases" and "silver reduction" strategies.
Musk is expected to build integrated PV capacity, with equipment and materials poised to benefit. On January 28, 2026, Tesla held an earnings call where Musk reiterated plans to increase investment in capacity for both terrestrial and space-based photovoltaics, proposing the construction of 100GW of fully integrated PV production capacity. The key marginal change is that Musk's PV capacity expansion may not be limited to cells and modules; his construction plans are expected to extend further upstream to polysilicon and silicon wafers, establishing a complete PV industry chain. The gradual clarification of expansion plans by major overseas manufacturers is expected to bring incremental orders for Chinese PV equipment suppliers, with these orders potentially extending upstream to polysilicon and silicon wafers, helping the PV equipment sector emerge from its cyclical bottom. Long-term, overseas PV capacity expansion creates incremental demand for auxiliary materials, from which leading auxiliary material companies are expected to benefit.
China is accelerating the pace of space-based PV industrialization, with multiple technological pathways advancing simultaneously. China possesses a solid foundation in PV technology R&D, and PV equipment, cell, and module manufacturers are actively promoting the commercialization of space-based solar power. China's space-based PV technology is still in its early stages of development; for this specific application scenario, various technological routes including Gallium Arsenide (GaAs), crystalline silicon, and perovskite have not yet converged. The report believes it is difficult to predict the final industry outcome at this stage. It is anticipated that multiple technological pathways will advance in parallel in the short term, consistently revolving around equipment, materials, and cells. Regarding specific niche directions, once the technological focus of overseas manufacturers becomes clear, related equipment and materials are expected to stand out.
Investment Recommendation: Musk has again stated plans to build 100GW of PV capacity, potentially extending upstream to polysilicon and silicon wafers, benefiting core equipment for these segments plus cells and modules. Long-term, material companies have market expansion potential. China's MIIT has clarified the "anti-internal competition" theme, expecting likely voluntary industry production limits and optimization of the cell and module landscape. China is accelerating space-based PV industrialization. The report recommends Focused Photonics (Hangzhou), Inc., Jiangsu Hagrid Industrial Co.,Ltd., Junda Automotive Interior Decoration Co.,Ltd., Maxwell Technologies Co.,Ltd., Jinko Solar Co., Ltd., Trina Solar Co., Ltd., Longi Green Energy Technology Co.,Ltd., and Haiyou New Material Co.,Ltd. It suggests monitoring Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.,Ltd., Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.,Ltd., Risen Energy Co.,Ltd., Shanghai Gangwan, and Jingshan Light Machinery.
Risk提醒: Unfavorable fluctuations in raw material prices; risks associated with international trade friction; new technology development falling short of expectations; new energy policy risks; grid integration risks.
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