The latest data collected over the past 24 hours shows that on November 3, the average terminal retail prices of 12 major Chinese baijiu products recorded six increases, five decreases, and one unchanged, with gainers slightly outnumbering decliners and cumulative gains exceeding losses, as the overall price board rebounded modestly after yesterday's sharp drop.
On the rising side, Feitian Moutai climbed 2 yuan to 1,785 yuan, ending a two-day losing streak; Wuliangye Yibin Co.,Ltd. (ASX: 000858) 1618 rose 2 yuan to 824 yuan, edging up after three consecutive days of flat trading and temporarily moving away from its recent low; Guojiao 1573 surged 7 yuan to 879 yuan, ending a six-day decline and posting the largest gain of the day; Gujinggong Gu 20 rose 3 yuan to 518 yuan, halting a four-day slump and easing its recent downward trend; Xijiu Junpin gained 4 yuan to 630 yuan, recovering some lost ground after yesterday's sharp fall and returning to the 630 yuan level; Qinghualang jumped 6 yuan to 671 yuan, rebounding noticeably after yesterday's 10-yuan plunge but still within its 30-day low range.
On the declining side, Jingpin Moutai fell 2 yuan to 2,443 yuan, extending a two-day decline and hitting a fresh 30-day low; Wuliangye Puwu Eighth Generation dropped 7 yuan to 790 yuan, wiping out gains from the previous two days and posting the largest decline of the day; Qinghua Fen 20 fell 4 yuan to 384 yuan, adjusting for a second straight day and matching its late-October stage low; Yanghe Mengzhilan M6+ declined 2 yuan to 597 yuan, weakening for a third consecutive day and continuing to slide after losing the 600-yuan mark; Shuijing Jiannanchun fell 2 yuan to 406 yuan, turning to consecutive probing of lows after recent price swings and hitting a new one-month low.
On the flat side, Moutai 1935 held steady at 685 yuan, shifting to sideways trading after yesterday's modest pullback, with its recent price trend relatively stable.
The total terminal retail price of the 12 major products edged higher today, with six products posting gains, among which Guojiao 1573 surged 7 yuan and Qinghualang rose 6 yuan, while Xijiu Junpin and Gujinggong Gu 20 also recovered to varying degrees, providing support to the overall price board. If one bottle of each of the 12 products were packaged together for sale, the total price today would be 10,612 yuan, up 7 yuan from yesterday, ending yesterday's sharp decline but still at a recent low level.
The daily data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points reasonably distributed across major regions nationwide, including but not limited to designated distributors of liquor companies, social distributors, e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The raw sampling data consists of actual transaction terminal retail prices handled at each point over the past 24 hours, striving to provide all parties with objective, scientific, and fully traceable data on the market prices of major baijiu products.
With the official i-Moutai platform launching Feitian Moutai at 1,499 yuan per bottle this New Year's Day (raised to 1,539 yuan per bottle on March 31 and further to 1,639 yuan per bottle on July 18), and Jingpin Moutai at 2,299 yuan per bottle on January 9 (raised to 2,359 yuan per bottle on May 16), the magnetic influence of this new channel on the average terminal retail prices of both products is gradually emerging.
The daily liquor prices published follow a calculation rule weighted by actual transaction volume, and we have incorporated quantifiable prices into the calculation of terminal retail prices for both products.
In important news for the baijiu industry, Zhongtai Securities released a research report on November 2 titled "Guizhou Moutai: Steady Growth of Moutai Liquor, i-Moutai Reshapes Channels," noting that against the backdrop of total industry contraction and price pressure, Guizhou Moutai was the first to achieve year-on-year growth in both third-quarter operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders, demonstrating strong operational resilience. The report stated that the channel restructuring driven by the i-Moutai platform further expanded the growth space for direct sales operations, deepened market-oriented reforms, and enhanced brand pricing power and terminal market control capabilities. However, considering that non-standard products still face certain pressures in the current baijiu market environment, as well as the company's latest third-quarter report performance, Zhongtai adjusted its earnings forecasts for Guizhou Moutai over the next three years. The report estimated that the company's operating revenue from 2026 to 2028 would be 173.779 billion yuan, 177.155 billion yuan, and 181.872 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 1%, 2%, and 3%, respectively; net profit attributable to shareholders would be 84.352 billion yuan, 87.937 billion yuan, and 89.681 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 2%, 4%, and 2%, respectively. Earnings per share over the same period were projected at 67.48 yuan, 70.35 yuan, and 71.74 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of approximately 21 times, 20 times, and 19 times. Zhongtai believes that Guizhou Moutai, as the leader of China's baijiu industry, still possesses strong operational resilience and channel reform advantages, and maintains a "Buy" investment rating.
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