Eli Lilly's newly launched oral weight-loss drug, Foundayo, has recorded significantly fewer prescriptions in its initial weeks compared to its competitor, raising doubts about its ability to catch up with Novo Nordisk in the oral anti-obesity market.
According to RBC Capital Markets analyst Trung Huynh, citing IQVIA data, Foundayo generated 3,707 prescriptions in its second week on the market. In contrast, the oral version of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy recorded 18,410 prescriptions during the same period post-launch, highlighting a substantial gap.
Following the news, Eli Lilly's stock fell 8% in pre-market trading, while Novo Nordisk's shares rose 4%.
Trung Huynh noted in a research report, "Although we believe early launch comparisons have limited significance, Foundayo's prescription volume this week may be interpreted negatively by the market." He also pointed out that factors such as sample distribution programs and challenges in tracking telehealth prescriptions make it difficult to assess the drug's true market performance until two to three months after launch.
Oral weight-loss drugs are seen as the next frontier in obesity treatment, with competition between the two giants extending from injectables to tablets. Foundayo received U.S. regulatory approval earlier this month through a program designed to accelerate the availability of promising drugs. This approval put pressure on Novo Nordisk, which launched oral Wegovy in January and has seen it become a key driver of its business recovery.
However, analysts at Danske Bank suggested in a Friday report that Novo Nordisk is likely to maintain its lead in the oral segment due to a more competitive product. Although no head-to-head trial has been conducted between the two oral drugs, Eli Lilly's large-scale study indicated that Foundayo's weight-loss efficacy was lower than that demonstrated by oral Wegovy in Novo Nordisk's separate trial.
Foundayo does offer certain convenience advantages—it has fewer restrictions on administration, does not require an empty stomach, and does not necessitate a 30-minute wait after dosing before eating or drinking. Notably, Foundayo is a new molecular entity, while oral Wegovy uses the same active ingredient, semaglutide, as its injectable counterpart Wegovy and Ozempic.
In the injectable market, Eli Lilly has gained an upper hand. Its injectable weight-loss drug Zepbound demonstrated superior weight reduction compared to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in a head-to-head trial, causing Novo Nordisk to lose its early lead in the injectable segment.
As a result, the oral drug market is crucial for Novo Nordisk—a victory in the tablet segment could help the Danish company offset its losses in injectables and reestablish a competitive edge.
Neither Eli Lilly nor Novo Nordisk has commented on the prescription data for Foundayo. Eli Lilly did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and Novo Nordisk declined to comment.
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