China International Capital Corporation (CICC) recently issued a research report, assigning Great Wall Motor a "Buy" rating with a target price of HK$22.5, implying a 60% upside from the current price, citing benefits from a strengthening product cycle and an accelerated overseas expansion strategy.
When mentioning Great Wall Motor, many immediately think of its Haval SUV brand. Indeed, this Chinese automaker, which started with pickup trucks and grew through SUVs, is now embarking on a more ambitious global journey. As China's automotive industry rises, Great Wall Motor's internationalization pace is becoming more resolute, yet this path of "going overseas" is filled with both opportunities and challenges.
Examining Great Wall Motor's financial reports reveals that its overseas business has become a crucial growth engine. In 2025, its overseas sales surpassed 500,000 units, a year-on-year increase of over 12%, with overseas revenue contributing 40% of the company's total revenue, a 10-percentage-point increase compared to 2023. Zheshang Securities anticipates that overseas revenue will continue to grow further. More notably, the gross profit margin in overseas markets reached a high of 18.8%, even slightly exceeding the domestic level, indicating that Great Wall Motor's globalization strategy is not merely about pursuing scale expansion but also value enhancement.
Great Wall Motor is currently accelerating its overseas expansion. Russia is currently its largest export market (accounting for 50% of overseas revenue in 2024), and the company is now planning to enter Latin American markets such as Mexico, Argentina, and Chile, while utilizing its Thailand plant (with an annual capacity of 80,000 vehicles) to access ASEAN/Asian markets. This diversification is also expected to help partially mitigate the impact of slowing growth in the Russian market.
Simultaneously, Great Wall Motor has established over 1,300 sales outlets across more than 170 countries and regions. Through optimized digital marketing and service systems, it delivers a high-quality service experience throughout the entire user lifecycle. The company's robust financial condition and concentrated ownership structure (Chairman Wei Jianjun holds nearly 60% of shares via Baoding Innovative Great Wall Asset Management) also provide a stable foundation for strategic execution.
However, Great Wall Motor's global journey is not without challenges. On one hand, competition in the domestic market is intensifying; the company's revenue growth rate slowed to 8% in the third quarter of 2025, down from 26% in 2023, indicating significant pressure in the home market. On the other hand, while overseas markets offer broad prospects, they present short-term hurdles: Russia's scrappage tax policy and extended tax refund periods have impacted growth in this key market (Russia accounts for approximately 10% of Great Wall Motor's total revenue); furthermore, increased sales expenses and tax rates associated with accelerating overseas channel development are currently eroding company profits.
Despite these challenges, CICC maintains a relatively optimistic stance on Great Wall Motor's long-term prospects. With the further refinement of its product portfolio and the operational deployment of its global marketing network, the company's revenue structure is expected to improve further, helping to dilute costs and enhance profitability levels. The latest target price is HK$22.5, suggesting a potential 60% upside.
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