July jobs report could be what gives the market its next big jolt in the week ahead

cnbc2021-07-31

KEY POINTS More than a quarter of S&P 500 companies report in the week ahead, but the July jobs report on Friday will be what matters most to markets. One strategist said the jobs number could be a “...

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Comments

DenisL
2021-08-02
DenisL
Summer time is usually slower
koolgal
2021-08-02
koolgal
Another volatile week ahead due to fallback from Chinese stocks. Investors are watching the earnings reports especially Ali Baba. So exercise caution when trading???
- koolgal:
  Thanks?
- AL52:
  watching
- WarSlasher:
  upupup
- koolgal:
  And away???
- ET2021:
  nobody can forecast future earning after this clampdown
RW5
2021-08-02
RW5
O
JokerForever
2021-08-02
JokerForever
Good analysis..
henry0leu
2021-08-02
henry0leu
Great
Mhong
2021-08-02
Mhong
Like and comment

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The calendar includes companies in sectors such as consumer staples, insurance, pharma, travel and media. FromBooking HoldingstoViacomCBS,WayfairandKellogg, investors will be watching to see what companies say about reopening activity, supply chain disruptions and rising costs.\n“I think as much as 85% of the companies which are reporting earnings mentioned inflation on their earnings calls,” Franklin Templeton Fixed Income chief investment officer Sonal Desai said. “Inflation may not be a problem to policymakers and financial markets, which seem not to be concerned at all. It does seem to bother the people who have to buy stuff or people who produce stuff.”\nThe jobs factor\nThe Federal Reserve has said the sharp jump in inflation is just temporary, and many investors appear to be taking it in stride for now. The market is intensely focused on the central bank's other mandate: the labor market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powellsaid Wednesdayhe would like to seestrong jobs reportsbefore winding down the central bank's $120 billion a month bond-buying program.\nThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release theJuly employment reporton the morning of Friday, Aug. 6. It's expected to show 788,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 850,000 in June, according to Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 5.7% from 5.9%. Average hourly wages are expected to rise 3.9% year over year.\nIronsides Macroeconomics director of research Barry Knapp said he expects the next two monthly jobs reports will be strong, and the Fed should then be ready to announce in September that it is ready to start the slow unwind of its bond purchasing program.\nThat is an important step since it would be the first real move away from the central bank’s easy policies that were put in place in the pandemic. It would also mean the Fed would be open to raising interest rates once the tapering is completed.\n\nGame changer for markets\n\"Friday could be a game changer,\" Knapp said of the employment report. Before that, he expects stocks to trade in a narrow range.\nIf the number of jobs added in July is much higher than expected, at more than 1 million, Knapp said the market could immediately sell off on the idea the Fed would be ready to pare back its bond purchases.\nIf the number is weaker than expected, the market could rally. \"We are in a dead period after earnings, with concerns about the pace of the reopening. It's still a bit of a question mark. The bias would be higher after a weak number. ... Bad is good. Good is bad,\" said Knapp.\nLike some other strategists, he expects tosee a stock market correction,possibly later this summer.\n“I’m in the camp where I think we’re going to have our first major correction.” Knapp said. “What we’re likely to get is at least 10% or more. ... It could really happen when they [Fed officials] make the announcement in September.”\nWilmington Trust chief economist Luke Tilley said he expects just 350,000 jobs, based on the high frequency data he watches.\n“We think the run rate is about 500,000 jobs. Last month seems a little bit overcooked,” he said.\nReflation trade\nTheS&P 500was down 0.4% in the past week, finishing at 4,395, while the Nasdaq lost even more , down 1.1% at 14,672.\nCyclical stocks were among the best performers. Materials jumped 2.8% in the week, and energy shares were up 1.6%. Financials gained 0.7%. But tech fell 0.7%.\nKnapp said it now makes sense to hold stocks that are in the reflation trade, such as energy, industrials or materials.\nThe surge in the delta variant of the coronavirus has become a worry among investors and has been a factor holding down interest rates. The 10-year yield, which moves opposite price, has held at low levels and was at 1.23% on Friday, amid concern that the delta variant of the coronavirus could slow growth.\nInvestors will be watching other important data in the coming week, including theInstitute for Supply Management’smanufacturing data Monday, andjobless claimsand trade data Thursday.\nThe China trade\nChina was also a dominant market story in the past week and could continue to be. Hong Kong’sHang SengIndexfell5% for the week. Chinese regulators continued theircrackdown on internet companies, publicly traded education companies and other industries.\nStrategists say Beijing is trying to reclaim its biggest companies as its own and turn them away from listings in foreign markets. Officials were particularly upset withDidi Globalwhichreportedly went public even after being warned not toby Beijing.\nChinese regulators reportedly spoke with international banksafter their actions sparked a wave of selling in internet stocks and the broader Chinese stock market. The regulators saidcompanies could continue to go publicin the U.S. if they met listing requirements.\n“We will continue to see regulators try to calm the waters. I would say this was a communications misstep,” said Franklin Templeton’s Desai. “You don’t have massive swings without having negative impact.” She added it sent ripples through emerging markets.\n“This is China trying to gain control, and they tried to do it in a very heavy way, and they were surprised at the backlash,” Desai said.\nTheKraneShares CSI China Internet ETFhas lost about half its value from its peak in February, and was down another 2.6% Friday.\nInternet retailerAlibabais one of the ETF’s top holdings. The company is expected to announce earnings on Tuesday.\nWeek ahead calendarMonday\nEarnings:Take-Two Interactive,Mosaic,Vornado Realty,Eastman Chemical, Simon Property,Transocean,Pioneer Natural Resources, Reynolds Consumer Products, ON Semiconductor, NXP Semiconductor, AXA, Loews\n9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI\n10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing\n10:00 a.m. Construction spending\n10:00 am. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren\n2:00 p.m. Senior loan officer survey\nTuesday\nEarnings:Alibaba,Amgen, Eli Lilly,Clorox, KKR,Under Armour, Eaton, Discovery, Pitney Bowes,Marriott,ConocoPhillips, Activision Blizzard,Avis Budget,Public Storage, Devon Energy, Jacobs Engineering, Bausch Health, Incyte, Philips 66,Ralph Lauren,Expeditors International,Nikola,Warner Music\n10:00 a.m. Factory orders\n11:00 a.m. New York Fed release on household debt and credit\nWednesday\nEarnings:Booking Holdings,CVS Health, GM, Etsy,MGM Resorts,Allstate,Uber,Fox Corp., Electronic Arts, Roku,Kraft Heinz,Toyota, Sony,AmerisourceBergen,Marathon Petroleum, BorgWarner, Entergy, Apollo Global Management, New York Times,Scotts Miracle-Gro, Tupperware,MetLife,IAC/Interactive\n8:15 a.m. ADP employment\n9:45 a.m. Services PMI\n10:00 a.m. ISM services\nThursday\nVehicle sales\nEarnings:Regeneron,ViacomCBS, Beyond Meat, DropBox,Expedia,Sprouts Farmers Market, TrueCar, Shake Shack,Square, TripAdvisor, Cushman and Wakefield,Kellogg,Cigna, Zillow, Lions Gate, Ambac, Virgin Galactic,Motorola Solutions,Zynga, Illumina, AIG, SeaWorld, Cardinal Health,Duke Energy, Thomson Reuters,Datadog,Eventbrite,NRG Energy,Choice Hotels,Parker-Hannifin,Wayfair,Zoetis\n8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims\n8:30 a.m. International trade\nFriday\nEarnings:Liberty Broadband, Liberty Media, AMC Networks,Draftkings, Fluor, Gannett,Canopy Growth,Nuance Communiciations,Goodyear Tire\n8:30 a.m. Employment report\n10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade\n3:00 p.m. Consumer credit","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":805504436,"gmtCreate":1627889064425,"gmtModify":1703497249620,"author":{"id":"4088158505984320","authorId":"4088158505984320","name":"DenisL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d13e043c2c38e5d7bfd53d016d5c6bf","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Summer time is usually slower&nbsp;","listText":"Summer time is usually slower&nbsp;","text":"Summer time is usually slower","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805504436","repostId":1106964638,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805610313,"gmtCreate":1627874974132,"gmtModify":1703496986648,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"Another volatile week ahead due to fallback from Chinese stocks.&nbsp; Investors are watching the earnings reports especially Ali Baba.&nbsp; So exercise caution when trading???","listText":"Another volatile week ahead due to fallback from Chinese stocks.&nbsp; Investors are watching the earnings reports especially Ali Baba.&nbsp; So exercise caution when trading???","text":"Another volatile week ahead due to fallback from Chinese stocks. Investors are watching the earnings reports especially Ali Baba. So exercise caution when trading???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805610313","repostId":1106964638,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5403061,"gmtCreate":1627904923200,"gmtModify":1663231821741,"authorId":3559581955535845,"author":{"id":3559581955535845,"authorId":3559581955535845,"name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"c4ee29b388ff41cc8462b3b7ea00d1e2-1","templateUuid":"c4ee29b388ff41cc8462b3b7ea00d1e2","name":"Monthly Top Contributor","description":"Top 3 Contributors with the most and best Editor's Picks every 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days","bigImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://ttm.financial/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.28","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"},"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007}]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805610313,"type":1,"supId":5401360,"prevId":0,"content":"And away???","text":"And away???","html":"And away???"},{"id":5400384,"gmtCreate":1627880106900,"gmtModify":1663231810431,"authorId":3561934316298325,"author":{"id":3561934316298325,"authorId":3561934316298325,"name":"ET2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070b2781c058fbb5c728aae73597245d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":805610313,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nobody can forecast future earning after this <u>clampdown</u>","text":"nobody can forecast future earning after this <u>clampdown</u>","html":"nobody can forecast future earning after this <u>clampdown</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805885683,"gmtCreate":1627870022242,"gmtModify":1703496868581,"author":{"id":"3582440300426753","authorId":"3582440300426753","name":"RW5","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1892f1a4f1e18bdabb9f243266c5c6b3","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1eed764d9c7ff83dc093fbb9a96bc2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"O","listText":"O","text":"O","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/805885683","repostId":1106964638,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":805881304,"gmtCreate":1627869841508,"gmtModify":1703496862007,"author":{"id":"4089081450453300","authorId":"4089081450453300","name":"JokerForever","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good analysis..&nbsp;","listText":"Good analysis..&nbsp;","text":"Good 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