Goldman Sachs recently released an on-site research report on China's humanoid robotics supply chain. The investment bank stated that most companies plan to gradually scale up production after receiving confirmed orders, meaning current capacity planning does not necessarily indicate imminent oversupply risks. Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about the long-term trend of humanoid robotics technology but emphasizes the need to monitor the performance of key robotic products and specific end-use applications to assess whether a technological inflection point is approaching.
The report details visits to nine Chinese robotics industry chain companies from November 3 to 6, including market favorites such as Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.,Ltd. (002050.SZ), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.,Ltd. (601689.SH), and Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.,Ltd. (002472.SZ). None of these companies confirmed receiving substantial definitive orders or provided clear mass production timelines. However, all are actively planning domestic and overseas production capacities, with annualized capacity targets ranging between approximately 100,000 to 1 million robot equivalents. This contrasts sharply with Goldman Sachs' global robotics shipment forecast of 1.38 million units by 2035, highlighting both the supply chain's optimism about industry growth prospects and market concerns over potential "overcapacity."
An analyst from the electrical and new energy sector cautioned against premature conclusions about "overcapacity." Globally, specific application scenarios and technological pathways for humanoid robots remain in exploratory stages. The current order drought should be interpreted as an inevitable trial-and-error phase in the early development of emerging industries, rather than grounds to dismiss the medium-to-long-term industrial trend. The analyst argued that supply chain companies' forward-looking capacity planning based on future projections represents necessary preparation for potential demand surges. With significant uncertainties remaining in future demand volumes and technological evolution, it is too early to conclude about "overcapacity" before actual orders materialize.
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