The bell ringing ceremony for CIDI at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at the end of 2025 marked the conclusion of that year's "wave of listings" in the autonomous driving industry. This was the ninth company from the industrial chain to list in Hong Kong within the year, attracting a tidal wave of capital exceeding tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars, encompassing players from solution providers to chipmakers. However, even as the echoes of the bell faded, a more severe test was already turning towards 2026: could the "ammunition" raised from these listings help companies navigate the treacherous waters of commercialization? With financial statements now fully exposed, the massive R&D expenditures and the harsh reality of difficult-to-scale profits would be laid bare under market scrutiny. Looking ahead to 2026, the industry's euphoria is set to settle into a phase of rational differentiation. The focus of capital markets is shifting from chasing "listing stories" to interrogating "post-listing performance." Capital will inevitably flow more critically towards companies that have preliminarily demonstrated commercial viability. The dominant theme in business will switch from "technology demonstrations" to "scaled implementation," seeking tangible profit breakthroughs in specific scenarios like ports, mines, and long-haul logistics. Consequently, an unavoidable industry shakeout is imminent; the chaotic era of "a hundred schools of thought contending" is nearing its end, and the process of "consolidation and elimination" will accelerate dramatically. A listing is never the finish line. In 2026, the ultimate test concerning technology, profitability, and survival will gradually reveal its answers.
The listing surge saw the entire industrial chain competing for a spot on the Hong Kong market stage. In 2025, the autonomous driving industrial chain experienced a collective explosion in the capital markets, with companies clustering for listings or filings, covering the full spectrum from solutions and core sensors to smart cockpits. The momentum for this listing wave was already apparent in the second half of 2024. Companies like Robosense (02498), Horizon Robotics (09660), Black Sesame (02533), and MINIEYE (02431) had already listed by that time, while a batch of other companies entered the filing stage, laying the groundwork for the current fervor. The year kicked off with SimTecs listing as the first autonomous driving company on the Hong Kong market in 2025. SimTecs, specializing in simulation and testing for intelligent connected vehicles and backed by investors including Huawei Hubble and the Beijing Shunyi State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, succeeded in its listing after four filing attempts, becoming the first publicly listed company globally in the autonomous driving simulation testing field. Subsequently, autonomous mobility service providers Pony.ai (02026) and WeRide (00800) made their dual-primary listings ("US stock + Hong Kong stock") on November 6th. Lidar leader Hesai (02525) completed the largest IPO by size in the global lidar industry. Following closely, key suppliers like Seyound (02665), PATEO (02889), and Joyson Electronics (600699.SH) also listed. By December 19th, CIDI, focusing on unmanned mining trucks, officially listed, becoming the "first global stock for autonomous mining trucks." While the listed companies formed a sector cluster, the queue of filing applications at the IPO gate also grew substantially. Incomplete statistics show that from October to December 2025 alone, eight companies, including TianTong WeiShi, Freetech, UISEE, and QianLi Technology, submitted filings. Notably, in terms of market share, the successfully listed companies are mostly leaders in their respective niches. For instance, Hesai maintained a leading market share in the ADAS lidar market, ranking first with a 33.0% share in the first half of the year; Joyson Electronics held the fourth global market share for smart cockpit domain controllers and a 35.9% global share for smart steering wheels; CIDI ranked first in the market for autonomous mining truck solutions.
Behind the密集 listings lies the "marathon" nature of the autonomous driving industry, characterized by high investment and long cycles. Public information indicates that the aforementioned companies all underwent multiple funding rounds before reaching the listing stage: WeRide and Hesai raised funds in at least ten rounds, PATEO and CIDI in eight rounds, and Pony.ai and Seyound in seven rounds. Against the backdrop of an industry yet to achieve large-scale profitability, listing and fundraising became a crucial pathway for companies to secure continuous funding and sustain their technological long-distance run. Why did the listing surge concentrate at this particular time? Multiple industry insiders noted that a key characteristic of the autonomous driving industry is "continuous cash burning," with enormous R&D investments and a long payback cycle; listing and fundraising can effectively alleviate the financial pressure on these companies, allowing them to better endure this "marathon." Zhang Xiang, Secretary-General of the International Association of Intelligent Transport Technology, analyzed that the surge is driven by two main factors: on one hand, the industrial chain is maturing, and core component costs are declining, providing a foundation for commercialization; on the other hand, achieving full autonomous driving still requires massive R&D investment, making listing an important avenue to support this long-term investment.
Beneath the光环, however, lies a widespread struggle with persistent losses, high R&D costs, and sluggish commercialization. A vast chasm exists between technological maturity and scalable profitability. Financial data reveals the普遍的生存压力 across the industry. Between 2022 and the first half of 2025, several leading companies accumulated staggering losses: WeRide accrued approximately 6.557 billion yuan in losses, while Pony.ai accumulated about 4.63 billion yuan, both remaining in a state of long-term deficit. CIDI, representing the closed-scenario segment, saw its losses widen from 263 million yuan in 2022 to 581 million yuan in 2024. Among the nine companies that successfully listed in 2025, only SimTecs, Hesai, and Joyson Electronics achieved profitability. Massive R&D expenditure is a core reason for the widespread losses. In the first half of 2025, the R&D spending-to-revenue ratio was exceptionally high for several firms: 322% for WeRide, 272% for Pony.ai, and 147% for Horizon Robotics. Black Sesame, focused on autonomous driving chips, had R&D expenses reaching 618 million yuan in H1 2025, more than double its operating revenue. Industry observers also point out that the validation cycle for autonomous driving technology is long, often taking years from lab R&D to real-vehicle testing and mass production rollout, requiring continuous funding during this period and making short-term profitability difficult to achieve.
Deeper pressure stems from the sluggish pace of commercialization. Taking Robotaxi as an example, although leading companies are expanding test fleets globally, the number of cities that truly permit fully driverless commercial收费 operations remains small. Zhang Ning, Vice President of Pony.ai, once stated that deploying a fleet of thousands of vehicles in a single city might be necessary to achieve per-vehicle breakeven, highlighting the immense capital gap before scaling. "Current L4 autonomous driving technology is not yet fully mature, which constrains users' willingness to pay, making it difficult for companies to generate sustainable revenue," analyzed Zhang Xiang. He added that low user willingness to pay, combined with an overheated market supply and a large number of companies, has led to price wars spreading, putting生存压力 on many firms. As market competition intensifies, price war pressures are rapidly transmitting upstream to suppliers. Even in upstream hardware sectors experiencing surging demand due to the普及 of L3 assisted driving, such as lidar and domain controllers, fierce price wars have trapped manufacturers in a dilemma of "increasing revenue without increasing profits," prompting some to explore new businesses like robotics in search of a second growth curve. In Zhang Xiang's view, the key to achieving profitability lies in the technology truly maturing and achieving scaled commercial use. Currently, no company globally has managed large-scale deployment of L3 and above autonomous driving. If technological breakthroughs occur, automakers' procurement意愿 will significantly increase, fundamentally improving the industry's revenue model. Therefore, until key technological breakthroughs bring about scaled revenue, ample "provisions"—meaning cash reserves—become the survival底线 for companies to endure this protracted battle. As of the first half of 2025, Horizon Robotics held cash reserves of 16.1 billion yuan, relatively ample; Pony.ai and WeRide held 5.356 billion and 5.838 billion yuan, respectively; SimTecs had only 290 million yuan, while Novosense actually had a net cash flow from operating activities of -308 million yuan, indicating particularly tight cash flow for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Behind the光环 of the listing surge, the autonomous driving industry is undergoing a冷酷 and rapid shakeout. Capital is becoming more rational, accelerating its concentration towards leading players. Industry data shows that while total financing in China's autonomous driving sector peaked at 93.2 billion yuan in 2021, this figure had dropped to 35 billion yuan by 2025. The contraction in financing规模 directly accelerated the industry淘汰 process. Haomo.AI, once backed by Great Wall Motors and valued at tens of billions, was reported to be facing operational suspension and salary arrears. Similarly, Zongmu Technology, which had raised over 2.2 billion yuan, rapidly fell into operational crisis after a hasty转型. According to incomplete statistics from 36Kr, at least seven autonomous driving companies with operational deployments have declared bankruptcy, entered liquidation, or undergone deep restructuring in the past year. This signifies that the industry has transitioned from "野蛮生长" into a残酷 "survival of the fittest"淘汰赛. Cao Xudong, Founder and CEO of Momenta, bluntly stated that the final competition in autonomous driving will conclude in 2026, with only three companies emerging victorious.
The淘汰赛 is underpinned by a fundamental shift in capital's judgment criteria: the era of attracting investment solely based on technological narrative is over. Investors now focus more on verifiable deployment capabilities and clear paths to profitability. This shift is equally evident in the secondary market. Both WeRide and Pony.ai experienced破发 on their first day of trading in Hong Kong and have seen cumulative declines of nearly 20% to date; CIDI also fell over 13% on its debut. Reports indicate that with the batch listings of companies, investment appetite in the primary market for this sector has significantly weakened. The other side of the shakeout is the显著 concentration of resources towards leading enterprises. In the first half of 2025, Horizon Robotics' market share in China's ADAS market approached 46%, solidifying its leading position. Simultaneously, deep industrial alliances are forming: DeepRoute.ai secured a $100 million strategic investment from Great Wall Motors, while Zhuoyu Technology received over 3.6 billion yuan in strategic investment from FAW Group. In Zhang Xiang's view, industry洗牌 and consolidation are inevitable. Autonomous driving requires massive R&D investment and has a long cycle; only companies with substantial financial strength and continuous innovation capability can persevere. He predicts market concentration will further increase, with less competitive small and medium-sized companies likely to gradually exit, shifting the industry landscape from "a hundred flowers blooming" to "concentration at the top." As the淘汰赛 commences, industry consolidation will continue to deepen. Ultimately, perhaps only those enterprises that truly possess the capabilities for mass production,极致 cost control, and strong ecosystem partnerships will survive and emerge victorious from this marathon.
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