Haitong International released a research report stating that global gold allocation demand is expected to remain resilient in Q4, while the Chinese market may see a seasonal rebound driven by holidays. The World Gold Council (WGC) believes geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of interest rate cuts in Q4 will continue to support global gold demand. Meanwhile, strong gold prices and central banks' ongoing purchases will keep investment in gold bars and coins in focus. WGC expects traditional seasonal improvement in China's gold jewelry consumption in Q4, though high prices may limit recovery. Additionally, as the 2026 Lunar New Year is later than usual, retailer restocking and consumer purchases may be delayed.
Key points from Haitong International:
**Q3 2025 Global Gold Demand Hits Record High, Investment Demand Dominates** Global gold demand (including over-the-counter investment) rose 3% YoY to 1,313 tons in Q3 2025, the highest on record since WGC began tracking data. Total gold demand value surged 44% YoY to $146 billion, also a record high. By the end of Q3, total gold demand grew 1% YoY to 3,717 tons, with value up 41% to $384 billion.
Investment demand remained dominant, with gold bar and coin demand exceeding 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter (316 tons in Q3). Combined with a significant increase in global gold ETF holdings (+222 tons), this drove overall demand growth. Central bank gold purchases stayed elevated at 220 tons in Q3, up 28% QoQ, though cumulative purchases in the first three quarters (634 tons) slowed compared to the same period last year (724 tons).
By segment, investment demand accounted for 40.9% of total demand, followed by jewelry manufacturing (31.9%), central bank and institutional purchases (16.7%), industrial use (6.2%), and OTC/other (4.2%). Jewelry consumption fell 19% YoY to 371 tons in Q3, marking the sixth consecutive quarterly decline. However, jewelry consumption value rose 13% YoY to $41 billion, reflecting high gold prices pressuring volume but boosting total spending.
**Strong Demand and Limited Supply Support Record Gold Prices** Global gold supply grew just 3% YoY to 1,313 tons in Q3, with mine production (73.8%) and recycling (26.2%) up 2% and 6% YoY, respectively, indicating constrained supply expansion. Rapid demand growth against slow supply pushed prices higher. The LBMA average gold price in Q3 2025 reached $3,457/oz, up 40% YoY and 5% QoQ, setting a new quarterly record.
**China’s Gold Demand Declines YoY in Q3, Jewelry Demand Rebounds Seasonally** China’s retail gold demand (including jewelry, bars, coins, and ETFs) fell 7% YoY and 38% QoQ to 152 tons in Q3 2025—the weakest Q3 performance since 2009. However, in value terms, demand hit a record high of RMB 120.4 billion ($16.9 billion), up 29% YoY, highlighting the "volume drop, price rise" trend amid soaring gold prices.
By segment, jewelry accounted for 55.3% of demand, bars/coins 48.7%, and ETFs saw a 3.8% outflow. Jewelry demand rose 21% QoQ to 84 tons (down 18% YoY), with retail value up 14% YoY and 25% QoQ to RMB 66.5 billion—the second-highest Q3 jewelry spending on record. Consumers remained willing to pay for preferred designs despite high prices, while seasonal factors (e.g., Qixi Festival and pre-wedding purchases ahead of the October holiday) supported volume. New lightweight, enamel, and IP-themed products also lifted prices.
Gold bar and coin investment rose 19% YoY to 74 tons in Q3 (down 36% QoQ but 17% above the 10-year average). Cumulative purchases in the first three quarters surged 24% YoY to 313 tons, the highest since 2013.
China’s gold ETFs saw a net outflow of RMB 3.8 billion ($540 million) in Q3, ending three straight quarters of inflows, with holdings down 5.8 tons to 194 tons. However, AUM rose 11% YoY to RMB 168.8 billion ($23.7 billion), hitting a record high. Year-to-date net inflows reached RMB 59.3 billion ($8.2 billion), with holdings up 79 tons, indicating short-term outflows have not reversed the annual trend.
Gold investment sentiment was subdued in July-August due to stock market recovery and price volatility but rebounded in September amid geopolitical risks and central bank buying. China’s official gold reserves rose 24 tons in Jan-Sept, including a 5-ton increase in Q3—the fourth consecutive quarterly rise—bringing total reserves to 2,304 tons (7.7% of forex reserves).
**Risks:** Geopolitical volatility, global economic and monetary policy uncertainty, gold price fluctuations, regulatory changes, weaker-than-expected Chinese consumption recovery.
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