Gold-related stocks experienced broad declines. At the time of writing,
According to Shi Jialiang, Assistant General Manager of the Industrial Finance Development Headquarters at Zhongtai Futures, the core driver behind this round of adjustment in international gold prices is a phase shift in gold's pricing logic. He indicated that rising expectations for both "policy tightening" and a "liquidity crisis" are jointly suppressing the upside potential for gold. The resonance of these two expectations has become a significant factor contributing to the recent consecutive declines in international gold prices and the breach of key support levels.
On April 30, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the current monetary policy stance is in a "very good place," emphasizing that interest rate cuts would still require patience amid dual shocks from oil prices and tariffs. Currently, market expectations regarding the future path of Fed rate cuts are showing significant divergence.
Shenyin & Wanguo Futures analysis suggests that U.S.-Iran negotiations remain uncertain, and persistently high oil prices may keep inflation elevated for a period, thereby weighing on expectations for Fed rate cuts. In the short term, precious metals lack upward momentum. However, considering weak domestic demand in the U.S. and ongoing risks in the labor market, expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year could still revive as geopolitical tensions gradually ease.
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