The World Meteorological Organization recently issued its latest global seasonal climate bulletin, projecting that from October to December of this year, sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region — the key monitoring zone for El Nino — will run 3.7 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, with the peak arriving around December, and the probability of the phenomenon persisting until February 2027 close to 100%.
Vigilance is warranted against localized abnormal rainfall, with both drought and flood risks coexisting across northern and southern parts of China. El Nino disrupts atmospheric circulation and moisture transport, profoundly reshaping China's climate pattern, with some regions seeing explosive increases in rainfall while others suffer drought, leaving both north and south facing severe tests.
From October to December, southern China must guard against concentrated rainfall and rapidly rising river levels, while the north needs to keep a close watch on localized abnormal rainfall, with river channels, reservoirs, and embankments inspected in advance. Yan Denghua, chief engineer of the Disaster Reduction Center at the China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, said that both flood control and drought relief must be addressed simultaneously in the near term, and it would be a mistake to rigidly assume that traditionally drought-prone areas need only focus on drought relief while flood-prone areas need only focus on flood control — both the north and the south must prepare on two fronts.
El Nino amplifies the suddenness of rainfall. When land that has suffered prolonged drought is hit by multiple rounds of heavy rain, a rapid "drought-then-flood" sequence unfolds, placing enormous pressure on farmland drainage, river channel flood conveyance, and reservoir scheduling. Qin Tianling, head of the Aerospace Intelligence Research Office at the Ministry of Water Resources' Disaster Reduction Center, said that intense rainfall may concentrate over small areas such as minor rivers and mountain gullies, causing water levels to surge within a short period, and it is not enough to look only at citywide or province-wide rainfall data.
Super El Nino disrupts South America, and 2027 could become the hottest year on record. A super El Nino event has now officially formed. This climate phenomenon stirs global atmospheric circulation and triggers multiple extreme weather events, bringing sharply contrasting climate impacts to South American countries: some areas are battered by torrential rain and soaring flood risks, while others face worsening drought.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon whose core characteristic is abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Industry experts warn that this round of super El Nino will further push up global average temperatures. Affected by El Nino, 2027 is very likely to become the hottest year since observational records began, and the risk of extreme weather across the globe warrants close attention.
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