According to the latest notebook industry research from TrendForce, Apple's (AAPL.US) comprehensive price increase for MacBooks has altered previous market perceptions. Even a premium brand must now pass on some costs to the end market, which is expected to further reinforce consumer expectations of rising notebook prices, leading to more conservative overall replacement demand.
Considering that the full impact of the MacBook price hikes will be reflected in the end market starting in the third quarter, coupled with slowing consumer demand, TrendForce estimates Apple's notebook shipments for 2026 will be approximately 23.1 million units. Performance in the first half of the year, supported by stable pricing strategies and strong initial sales of the MacBook Neo, exceeded expectations. Even with a slowdown in momentum expected in the second half, the firm still forecasts full-year shipments will maintain a double-digit year-on-year growth rate.
TrendForce states that the MacBook price increase may narrow the price overlap with some high-end Windows models, potentially prompting price-sensitive consumers to switch to the Windows camp. However, given the widespread trend of rising notebook prices and weakening consumer market demand, the expected demand spillover is limited and unlikely to become a primary driver for a broader market recovery. Nevertheless, compared to the overall notebook market conditions, Apple's full-year performance is expected to remain relatively resilient.
The Apple Silicon platform continues to drive upgrade demand among existing users, and the advantages of the macOS ecosystem and cross-device integration help support its baseline demand. However, if the dampening effect of higher end-market prices on demand proves greater than anticipated, there remains a possibility for further downward revisions to Apple's subsequent shipment performance.
TrendForce points out that due to the ongoing expansion of AI server demand, the resource crowding-out effect within the semiconductor supply chain has not eased. Prices for key components like memory, power management ICs, and raw materials such as gold and copper remain elevated, continuing to pressure the overall cost structure of notebooks.
However, compared to the beginning of 2026, the supply situation for mainstream-priced CPUs showed month-on-month improvement in the second quarter, prompting brand manufacturers to accelerate component procurement and advance shipments. As a result, notebook shipment performance in the first half of 2026 surpassed initial expectations.
The early fulfillment of demand in the first half means there is relatively limited demand left to support the market in the second half. As component costs gradually translate into higher end-market prices, signs of weakening consumer purchasing power are beginning to emerge.
TrendForce notes that some brands have already felt a clear softening in consumer demand, with price sensitivity notably increasing for entry-level and mainstream consumer products. A trend of consumers extending their device replacement cycles is gradually becoming apparent.
While commercial replacement demand and education sector procurement projects currently remain relatively stable, providing important support, they are insufficient to fully offset the cooling consumer market.
Taking into account the pull-forward shipment effect from improved supply in the first half, combined with the impact of demand being pulled forward and rising end-market prices in the second half, TrendForce forecasts a 13.6% decline in global notebook shipments for 2026.
The industry continues to face two major challenges simultaneously: AI servers persistently crowding out resources for memory and advanced process nodes, making it difficult to alleviate supply tightness and cost pressure in the short term. On the other hand, end-market acceptance of price increases is gradually being tested.
Amid constrained supply and slowing demand, balancing cost pass-through with end-market demand will become the most significant operational challenge for brand manufacturers in the future.
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