Netizens ask: "Will investment iron bars or investment youtiao (fried dough sticks) be next?" On January 19, the hashtag #CopperBarsQuietlyTrendingAfterGoldSilverRally# surged to the top of search rankings. Recently, the precious metals market has been booming, with prices for gold and silver, in particular, climbing steadily and becoming a popular investment focus for the masses. Beneath this wave of enthusiasm, another metal has quietly gained traction—investment-grade copper bars.
Under the related discussion, some netizens commented, "At first I thought it was a joke, but it turned out to be real." Others joked, "I no longer dare to call it 'scrap metal'."
It is reported that Shenzhen's Shuibei is the largest gold and jewelry distribution hub in China. This very month, many merchants in markets like Jinzuo, Yinzuo, and Teli have tentatively launched investment copper bars made of 999.9 pure copper, available in 500-gram and 1000-gram specifications, though the 1000-gram bar is more common. The quoted price for a single 1000-gram investment copper bar ranges from 180 yuan to 280 yuan. However, most merchants do not have copper bars in stock; they require pre-orders, with waiting times varying from 3 to 7 days. A Shuibei merchant mentioned that while there have been many inquiries over the past couple of days, very few people have actually placed orders. The primary concern for most potential buyers is the future redemption process. "Is this still the same Shuibei, once overflowing with gold?" Currently, only a handful of merchants offer investment copper bars, and even other vendors within the market find the trend rather unbelievable.
Meanwhile, in the Hangzhou market, some investors have also started to show interest in investment copper bars. Old Lin, the owner of Hangzhou's Lao Fulin Gold Shop, said that a customer buying a silver bar the day before yesterday mentioned the recent price increase in copper and asked if the shop sold investment copper bars. "In the public's perception, copper is very cheap. Buying a small amount doesn't yield much appreciation, but buying a large amount poses storage issues, and future redemption is also a problem." Old Lin noted that the copper trend started about two months ago and that some clients are now speculating on another metal: indium ingots. "It was around 3,000 yuan last month, now it's 3,900 yuan." The price of a one-kilogram indium ingot has risen by nearly 1,000 yuan in a month. One netizen shared that they bought a kilogram of indium ingots online two months ago on a whim, spending 2,800 yuan at the time; by yesterday, the price had risen to around 4,100 yuan. The emergence of investment copper bars has also sparked collective banter among netizens: "Will investment iron bars or investment youtiao (fried dough sticks) be next?"
Last year, prices for commodities, represented by copper, rose significantly, with copper's annual price increase exceeding 30%. According to data from 100ppi.com, the spot price of copper fluctuated upwards in 2025, starting the year at 73,830 yuan per ton and rising to 99,180 yuan per ton by year-end, a full-year increase of 34.34%. Since the beginning of 2026, copper prices have repeatedly hit new highs. On January 14, LME copper futures briefly reached a historic high of $13,407 per ton; domestic copper futures also soared to over 100,000 yuan per ton. As a rare metal and a key material in high-tech fields, the price of indium ingots has accumulated a staggering 233% increase over the past five years. "Copper is suitable for hoarding by the ton, not by the kilogram. The premium on copper bars is too high; you wouldn't break even even after holding them for years," said one precious metals investor. He did the math: at 200 yuan per kilogram, the underlying copper price would need to rise to 200,000 yuan per ton just to break even, not including cost interest and redemption discounts. "The problem is, the spot price is quoted at 100,000 yuan per ton today..."
According to Orange Kitty Interactive, the biggest difference between copper and gold or silver is that gold and silver inherently possess safe-haven and monetary attributes, whereas copper does not; its price is primarily driven by industrial demand. For instance, copper accounts for about 30% of the cost of an air conditioner. "Therefore, copper is not really suitable for individual investment."
Looking ahead, some industry insiders believe that potential US import tariffs on refined copper could be a key factor affecting copper prices. On July 30, 2025, local time, the White House stated that US President Trump had signed a proclamation, and the US Department of Commerce recommended imposing a 15% tariff on refined copper starting in 2027, increasing to 30% in 2028. Before June 30, 2026, the US Secretary of Commerce is to provide the President with an update on the domestic copper market to inform the decision on whether to implement the import tariffs. Wall Street is deeply divided regarding the future trajectory of this most crucial industrial metal. UBS has warned of a severe structural shortage in the copper concentrate market from 2026 to 2027. However, this structurally bullish view contrasts sharply with the short-term cautions issued by Goldman Sachs and Citi. Goldman Sachs believes that the recent rapid rise in copper prices is primarily due to "structural tension" under the potential US tariffs; once the tariff path becomes clearer, copper prices are expected to revert to the "true state" of global supply and demand.
Citi warned that once the direction of tariff policy becomes clearer, metal inventories hoarded in the US market might flow back into the global market. This would alleviate physical supply pressures in other regions and put downward pressure on metal prices. "The second quarter of this year will be a turning point for market sentiment in copper," Goldman Sachs stated in a report, raising its LME copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton. The rationale cited is tightening inventories outside the US due to capital inflows and supply being diverted towards the US. However, the bank maintained its forecast of $11,200 per ton for the fourth quarter of 2026, implying significant downward pressure on prices in the second half of the year. Simultaneously, Citi's research team stated in a recently published report that while copper prices might touch $14,000 per ton around mid-year, January could potentially mark the price peak for the entire year. Citi believes that unless there are unexpectedly positive macroeconomic developments, the current price rally has already absorbed most of the potential upside.
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