According to Woofun AI, the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.3%, hitting its highest level since 2002.
This macro variable has directly reshaped the competitive landscape for assets: as an asset that generates no endogenous yield, Bitcoin must now engage in a head-to-head contest with investment products that offer yields above 5% and carry government guarantees, and its no-interest attribute appears especially fragile against a low-risk, high-return benchmark.
The deeper reason is that the core driver of rising yields is not slowing economic growth, but rather the combination of inflationary pressure and debt problems. This structural change has significantly raised the valuation threshold for risk assets.
Because Bitcoin provides neither interest nor dividends, investors can only rely on capital gains; by contrast, US Treasuries carry almost zero default risk yet offer more than 5% returns, forcing crypto assets to offer higher expected returns in order to attract capital.
From a valuation logic perspective, high yields raise the discount rate applied to future returns, causing the current value of cryptocurrencies that lack cash flows to come under pressure. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that capital is accelerating into the bond market, and as of September, bond ETFs (TLT.US) recorded a fundraising scale of $469 billion, a record high.
Since 2026, the 10-year US Treasury yield has cumulatively risen by about 1.2 percentage points, and earlier this month it touched a high of 5.34%. Institutional views further confirm the persistence of market pressure.
Dan Ivascyn, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), said in an interview with the Financial Times that yields could rise further to 6%. He warned that once the 5.5% threshold is breached, both the credit market and the stock market could face clear weakness.
At the same time, debt issuance by artificial intelligence companies is competing with US Treasuries for limited liquidity, intensifying the diversion of funds at the fund level.
As investors re-examine the traditional 60/40 portfolio allocation, market liquidity can temporarily ease the shock from interest rates, but in the long run, this valuation squeeze caused by higher risk-free rates will be difficult to dissipate quickly.
Bitcoin's asset appeal is undergoing a fundamental reappraisal.
Its price movements are increasingly deeply tied to the US bond market, and any asset that generates no income must continuously outperform the 5% Treasury yield in order to maintain its relative advantage.
Against the backdrop of elevated Treasury yields, the holding cost of no-interest assets has effectively risen, and investors will demand a more demanding risk premium, marking that the valuation logic of crypto assets in a macro high-interest-rate environment has entered a new and severe phase.
Comments