Bitcoin's Active Addresses Near 2018 Bear Market Levels 鈥?Is a Bottom Finally Forming?

According to market data, a sharp decline in Bitcoin network activity has sparked debate about whether the market cycle is turning.

The current indicator configuration closely resembles the backdrop of the 2018 to 2019 bear market, but the asynchrony between price action and on-chain data suggests the bottom has not yet been confirmed.

On July 19, the 30-day moving average of active addresses dropped to 609,688, before slightly recovering to 621,957 on July 27. Active addresses are defined as unique addresses that send or receive Bitcoin daily; this figure is influenced by individuals, companies, or institutions controlling multiple addresses and does not directly equate to the number of users.

The moving average, by filtering out short-term volatility, better reflects the overall trend in network activity, making it a key reference for assessing actual usage. The current data closely mirrors historic major downturns, revealing the typical shrinking of network size during periods of low market participation.

Historical comparisons offer a critical warning: In July 2018, the 30-day average of active addresses fell to 570,710, while the 100-day average in January 2019 stood at 605,433. Notably, when Bitcoin hit its cycle low of $3,206 on December 14, 2018, network activity did not bottom out simultaneously鈥攖he 30-day average had already bottomed 166 days earlier, while the 100-day average bottomed 44 days later.

Another factor worth noting in the current market: Bitcoin set a local low of $58,535 on June 30, with the two moving averages reaching their respective lows 19 and 27 days later. This time lag suggests that the number of active addresses alone cannot independently confirm a market bottom or predict the timing of a rebound.

The latest trends show network participation is recovering. Since the low point, the 30-day average had risen to 664,764 by August 8, while the 100-day average recovered to 640,603. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price remains above its June lows, indicating that on-chain activity and price performance are gradually healing as the market stabilizes, potentially signaling the accumulation of momentum for a new cycle.