According to a research report, Tesla Motors is reportedly planning to procure solar module and battery equipment worth $2.9 billion from Chinese manufacturers. The company aims to establish 100 GW of integrated manufacturing capacity, from raw materials to finished modules, within the United States by the end of 2028. It is anticipated that Tesla will prioritize TOPCon technology for its ground-mounted solar modules due to its high market penetration, mature equipment and processes suitable for rapid production scaling, competitive cost-effectiveness, and potential for further efficiency gains. JinkoSolar, JA Technology, and Trina Solar are identified as key companies to monitor.
The primary considerations for selecting TOPCon technology are its rapid deployment capability, with a current technology penetration rate of 87.6% in 2025, and its high product value, as TOPCon requires the lowest capital expenditure among N-type cell technologies while achieving a mass production module efficiency of 23.7%, with further upgrades possible. If Tesla proceeds with TOPCon for its 100 GW capacity, JinkoSolar is highly likely to be the preferred strategic partner, given its patent portfolio and manufacturing advantages.
Regarding patent protection, JinkoSolar holds approximately 600-700 valid patents with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), including over 200 granted patents, establishing a leading legal position in N-type technology. Key patents, such as the '136' and '454' patents, cover core back-side passivation techniques for TOPCon cells and have already been enforced in the US market. From a manufacturing standpoint, JinkoSolar's major production base in Shanxi represents one of the world's most vertically integrated and largest-scale facilities, perfectly aligning with Tesla's requirement for an integrated supply chain from raw materials to modules.
Based on recent patent licensing agreements, such as the one between Aiko and Maxeon, JinkoSolar could potentially generate annual royalty revenues ranging from RMB 3 billion to 10 billion if Tesla's 100 GW TOPCon plan materializes. JA Technology and Trina Solar, as other leading TOPCon manufacturers holding relevant patents, are also expected to benefit from Tesla's US expansion plans. JA Technology has registered numerous patents in North America related to technologies like SMBB and high-density encapsulation, while Trina Solar has focused on patents for multi-layer passivation film stacks and laser doping.
In summary, to meet rising power demand from data centers, Tesla is accelerating its plans for 100 GW of TOPCon capacity in the US. The core patents for TOPCon cells and modules are primarily held by JinkoSolar, JA Technology, and Trina Solar. JinkoSolar, with its superior patent portfolio and integrated process advantages, is positioned as the likely primary partner for Tesla's project, while JA Technology and Trina Solar are also poised to benefit due to their own patent holdings.
Key risks include potential delays or changes in Tesla's project timeline and technology roadmap, which spans until 2028 and depends on funding, US supply chain development, and policy execution. The rapid pace of solar technology innovation also poses a risk if Tesla shifts to alternative technologies like perovskite tandem or TBC cells, potentially reducing the value of existing TOPCon patents. Furthermore, legal challenges to patent validity from US entities and potential changes in US trade or regulatory policies concerning foreign entities could impact the ability of Chinese companies to monetize their intellectual property in the North American market.
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