Pre-market market movements. On Thursday, November 12, ahead of the US market open, the three major US stock index futures were mixed. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.07%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.76%.
As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.82%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 0.35%, France's CAC 40 was up 0.73%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.28%.
As of press time, WTI crude oil was down 0.81% at $85.83 per barrel. Brent crude was down 0.71% at $92.10 per barrel.
Market News
Deutsche Bank ramps up hawkish forecast! The Fed may hike rates at each of its next three meetings, with no pause in January. After US October inflation data came in above expectations, Deutsche Bank quickly shifted to a more hawkish policy forecast, expecting the Fed to raise rates at three consecutive meetings, reversing its earlier call for a pause in January. Deutsche Bank had previously projected the Fed would hike by 25 basis points in December and again in March, with a pause in between at the January meeting. But its latest forecast has incorporated a January hike into its base case, expecting the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points each in December, January, and March. That would lift the federal funds rate target range from the current 3.75%–4.00% to 4.50%–4.75%. Before the inflation data was released, Fed Governor Waller said that if price pressures accelerated further, the Fed should consider a 50 basis point hike in December rather than a conventional 25 basis point adjustment. Deutsche Bank believes Waller's remarks opened the door to a larger hike. The bank does not rule out a one-time 50 basis point hike in December but stressed that this is not its base case.
Nvidia's "black swan" shakes AI faith! The Jensen Huang controversy brings Treasury buying, with long-end US Treasuries rising against the trend. The Nvidia controversy has cast doubt on the main AI trade narrative, and safe-haven buying flowed into US Treasuries. This chip giant is a core pillar of the AI rally, and any negative controversy could hit market confidence far beyond the company itself. The 30-year Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 5.34%, with an auction of same-maturity debt due Thursday; the 10-year Treasury yield briefly dipped before stabilizing at 4.99%. Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said: "The series of news surrounding Jensen Huang has further shaken market confidence in the AI narrative, driving a small safe-haven bid in US Treasuries. Nvidia is crucial to the AI investment boom and even the global economy, and there is no doubt that all market participants are closely watching how things develop."
A signal of easing in the Middle East? Reports say Vance is considering face-to-face talks with Iran's top security official. According to reports, US Vice President Vance is considering holding face-to-face talks with Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, to push for an end to the Iran war. US President Trump is open to this. The report, citing US and Middle Eastern officials, said Trump recently told senior aides and relevant figures that he is open to Vance restarting US-Iran negotiations and has authorized him to carry out the talks. The report said US officials stressed that discussions about Vance meeting directly with Iranian officials are "still at an early stage," and no specific date has been set. But the two countries are exploring follow-up arrangements through mediators and other channels. People familiar with the matter said that if the meeting takes place, the next phase of negotiations could be held in Doha, Qatar.
Is oil no longer the key? The most troublesome part of US inflation may now lie outside energy. As the link between oil prices and US Treasury yields formed after the Iran war broke down, investors face a new market reality: even if the war ends and energy prices return to normal, US inflation may not cool significantly, and the Fed's tightening pressure may persist. For most of 2026, Wall Street widely believed that rising oil prices would lift inflation expectations and in turn drive Treasury yields higher. Higher energy costs not only directly push up consumer prices but may also prompt the Fed to keep rates high for longer, leading investors to sell Treasuries or demand higher yields to compensate for risk. But this trading logic has recently changed. This week, international oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than two months. At the same time, US Treasury yields climbed sharply because the latest economic data may prompt the Fed to take more aggressive rate action. That means even if oil prices fall further, as long as the US economy remains strong, inflation pressure could still push Treasury yields higher.
Individual Stock News
As CoreWeave ignites AI fervor, can Nebius (NBIS.US) defend the AI computing rally with explosive results? In recent years, Nebius, a European tech leader that has shifted focus to providing cloud AI computing resources, now urgently needs to prove that computing price increases can be realized alongside better-than-expected capacity delivery and faster-than-expected funding, so that the new wave of computing enthusiasm ignited by CoreWeave's strong results and Anthropic's IPO roadshow can continue—especially after negative news about Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang again triggered a after-hours plunge in Nvidia and a broad after-hours decline across the AI computing supply chain. Nebius Group will release its earnings report and future outlook before the US market opens on November 12 Beijing time.
Governance turmoil continues to escalate! Nvidia (NVDA.US) shares dived pre-market. On Thursday ahead of the US market open, as of press time, Nvidia fell nearly 7%. Three days after admitting to an extramarital affair in a post on November 8, Jensen Huang was reported to be involved in a second extramarital relationship, with the woman said to be an Nvidia vice president who reports directly to him. At the same time, media reports citing people familiar with the matter said Nvidia's board is busy preparing to remove Huang, with a board meeting as early as November 12 to decide his fate, and has partnered with external headhunters to find a successor, considering first appointing an interim CEO as a transition. Some commentators believe Nvidia may be able to weather this storm, but the process will be extremely difficult, and the probability that Huang will be removed as chief executive is quite high. Data from prediction market Polymarket shows that the implied probability of Huang leaving or being ousted has surged. With Nvidia due to report third-quarter results next week, "key person risk" is worrying investors.
Memory chip and optical communications stocks fell broadly pre-market. On Thursday ahead of the US market open, as of press time, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) fell nearly 4%, SanDisk (SNDK.US) and Micron Technology (MU.US) fell more than 3%, Seagate Technology (STX.US) and Western Digital (WDC.US) fell more than 2%; Coherent (COHR.US) fell more than 4%, Astera Labs (ALAB.US), Credo Technology (CRDO.US), and Lumentum (LITE.US) fell more than 3%, and Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) fell more than 2%.
Musk: 100 gigawatts in space beats 800 gigawatts on Earth; after SpaceX (SPCX.US) Starship, the next target is "space computing." SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday pushed back against comparisons between ground-based solar power and orbital solar power. The company is now stepping up efforts to send data centers into space. Musk posted on X that "100 GW in space is roughly equivalent to 800 GW on Earth," adding that ground-based solar "must be paired with large-scale batteries to continuously power compute at night, and supplemented by combustion generation or nuclear power in winter," concluding that the two approaches are "not the same thing at all." Musk has previously said that data centers in space will eventually surpass ground infrastructure. SpaceX has filed with the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) seeking permission to operate up to 1 million Starmind satellites. The first satellites are expected to begin launching in the second half of next year.
Alphabet (GOOGL.US) launches roadshow for Hong Kong dollar and Singapore dollar bond issuance, potentially a "litmus test" for investor confidence amid AI market volatility. Alphabet launched a roadshow for its first Hong Kong dollar and Singapore dollar bond issuance, seeking to test investor appetite as AI companies face heightened market volatility. According to a person familiar with the matter, Alphabet set initial price guidance for the planned 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year Hong Kong dollar bonds at about 4.6%, 5%, and 5.5%, respectively. The person said the company is also marketing Singapore dollar-denominated 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds, with initial price guidance of about 2.75%, 3.25%, 3.65%, and 4%, respectively. Earlier reports noted that Alphabet plans to issue Hong Kong dollar bonds equivalent to $1 billion to $1.5 billion, as well as about $1.5 billion in Singapore dollar bonds.
CoreWeave (CRWV.US) plans to raise at least $4 billion after raising its revenue guidance: the AI computing supplier begins a credit leap from "junk" to "investment grade." After raising its annual sales forecast and easing investor concerns about its debt-heavy business model, CoreWeave plans to raise at least $4 billion through an investment-grade loan. According to people familiar with the matter, Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) are leading the potential financing, and the loan will be syndicated to investors in stages. The company, still rated junk, has relied heavily on high-yield bond market financing for its data center expansion. But it was able to lock in lower borrowing costs by using chips and related contracts as collateral support for the debt—a structure expected to carry over to this new financing. Based on preliminary discussions, the new financing could be issued at a yield of 7% to 7.5%—a figure the company disclosed on Tuesday's earnings call with analysts. That level is only about half the yield on its existing junk bonds.
Key Economic Data and Event Preview
21:30 Beijing time: US initial jobless claims for the week ended November 7. 21:30 Beijing time: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks. 23:00 Beijing time: Fed Governor Barr speaks on artificial intelligence and inequality. 00:30 Beijing time the next day: 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks. 02:10 Beijing time the next day: 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks. 02:30 Beijing time the next day: 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks. 07:30 Beijing time the next day: permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams speaks.
Earnings Preview
Friday morning: Cisco (CSCO.US), Applied Materials (AMAT.US), Cerebras Systems (CBRS.US).
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