ATFX commentary: Last Friday, gold fell below $3,900. Although it rebounded somewhat today, the market price remains below the psychological $4,000 level, and the decline is expected to resume after the rebound peaks. Support below stands at $3,870, which is also the lowest point of the previous downward wave, and may not be touched in the near term.
For the December WTI crude oil contract, the latest quote remains above the $100 mark, though it has fallen significantly from last Friday's high of $104.95. The $100 level is a psychological threshold, and before the price breaks below and moves sharply away from it, bullish confidence may remain relatively firm. Given the H4-level choppy price action, WTI crude oil has the potential to bottom out and rebound at current levels. Reports suggest that after the midterm elections, the United States will take aggressive action against Iran. Under this expectation, crude oil is more likely to rise than fall. After the Federal Reserve raised rates in September and held steady in October, expectations for a December hike have increased, though a move is not guaranteed. International crude oil prices remain a core factor influencing rate hike expectations, and whether high oil prices can persist through year-end is still difficult to predict.
The euro shows signs of appreciation on the hourly chart, but resistance at 1.1205 above could exert significant pressure on the pair. The clear bearish trend on the daily chart still poses a notable deterrent to funds looking to go long EURUSD.
ATFX View
On the four-hour chart, among the three instruments, gold shows the smoothest decline, with moving averages fanning downward and the ATR rising, which is a signal of a trending downtrend. The wave of rate hikes by major global central banks amplifies the disadvantage of gold as a non-yielding asset, making a short- to medium-term bottoming rebound difficult for gold. WTI crude oil and EURUSD lack clear trends; the former has a pullback need in the top zone, while the latter is experiencing a technical rebound within a bearish trend, and neither offers operational value.
ATFX View
On the daily chart, the long-term downtrends in gold and EURUSD are more evident, and hourly and H4-level operations should align with the daily trend. EURUSD's sideways movement at the bottom on the daily chart offers opportunities to sell high and buy low on the hourly chart. WTI crude oil, affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has its market price stabilized at historic highs. Although the bullish trend remains significant, room for further gains has been greatly compressed. Once there is a change in the U.S.-Iran situation or the Russia-Ukraine conflict, downward momentum could be substantial.
ATFX Risk Warning, Disclaimer, and Special Statement: Markets carry risk, and investing requires caution. The above content represents only the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational advice. Please do not treat this report as your sole reference. Analysts' views may change over time, and updates will not be announced separately.
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