Key Data **Aluminum** As of November 7, 2025, LME aluminum closed at $2,862.0/ton, while SHFE aluminum's main contract settled at ¥21,625/ton. Spot premiums in East China stood at -¥30/ton, Central China at -¥150/ton, and Foshan at -¥145/ton. The LME aluminum cash premium (0-3) was -$14.2/ton.
**Supply**: As of November 7, China's primary aluminum production capacity reached 45.232 million tons, with operating capacity at 44.424 million tons, down 10,000 tons weekly. The operating rate was 98.21%.
**Demand**: Weekly aluminum billet output was 358,400 tons (-8,000 tons WoW), while aluminum sheet/foil production rose to 371,900 tons (+6,800 tons WoW). Leading cable and foil producers saw slight declines in operating rates.
**Inventory**: Domestic social stocks of aluminum ingots edged up to 622,000 tons (+3,000 tons WoW), while LME inventories stood at 549,225 tons.
**Profit**: The industry's weighted production cost was ¥16,114/ton, yielding an instant profit of ¥5,427/ton.
**Market Analysis** Aluminum: Domestic fundamentals remain stable, but overseas supply disruptions—such as Century Aluminum's 200,000-ton capacity reduction due to equipment failure in Iceland (lasting 11-12 months)—could tighten supply. Despite muted inventory drawdowns, low absolute stock levels and positive macro trends (e.g., U.S.-China trade talks) support price resilience. A smooth inventory reduction may unlock further upside.
**Strategy**: Cautiously bullish on aluminum; neutral on alumina. **Risks**: Unexpected disruptions in overseas ore supply or macro policy shifts.
*Note: All data as of November 7, 2025.*
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