Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
On June 15th, an analysis of the fundamental drivers for gold: At the start of the Asian trading session on Monday, spot gold opened higher and continued to climb. As of 07:30, it had surged as much as 2.18% to $4,308.91 per ounce, reaching its highest level in nearly a week. This rise was fueled by a peace agreement between the US and Iran, which triggered a sharp drop of over 5% in international oil prices to their lowest point in more than two months. This development significantly cooled inflation concerns, slightly dampening expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike within the year. The US dollar index weakened considerably, providing upward momentum for gold prices. Spot gold has since retreated slightly to around $4,285 per ounce.
In the early hours of June 15th Beijing time, both the Pakistani Prime Minister and US President Trump stated that an agreement had been reached between the US and Iran. President Trump indicated approval for free passage through the Strait of Hormuz and authorized the immediate lifting of the US naval blockade on Iran. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister also confirmed that the text of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding had been finalized and would be officially signed in Switzerland this coming Friday, June 19th.
Technical analysis of gold: The current chart shows that although gold experienced a short-term bottoming and recovery, the larger weekly and daily cycle structures remain weak, and the overall bearish trend has not changed. On the weekly chart, the gold price continues to face downward pressure, having broken below medium-term moving average support. The price center is consistently moving lower, the Bollinger Bands are expanding downwards, and the MACD remains in a bearish configuration, indicating a solid medium-term downtrend. Every rebound appears to be a weak correction. The daily chart continues to show a bearish alignment, with the gold price consistently suppressed below the short-term moving averages. The momentum of rebounds is severely insufficient, with corrections appearing weak and lacking sustainability. In terms of indicators, although the daily bearish momentum has slightly weakened, no reversal signals have emerged. The RSI has recovered slightly from low levels, but this appears to be merely a technical correction after an oversold condition. The current pattern shows consistently lower highs and lower lows, with pressure levels descending and low-level support being tested repeatedly, indicating declining stability. Short-term rebounds are unlikely to reverse the weak trend of the larger cycle. After the correction phase concludes, a continuation of the downward movement is highly probable. The recommended trading strategy therefore remains to primarily look for selling opportunities on rallies, avoiding the temptation to blindly buy the dip based on short-term corrections.
On the 4-hour chart, the gold price quickly recovered its losses after a decline, stabilizing above the short-term support platform on this timeframe. The lows are gradually rising, indicating that the downward momentum has been completely exhausted. Technical indicators are simultaneously showing signs of recovery. The MACD's green bars are continuously narrowing, with signs of a bottom forming at low levels, and the RSI is steadily rising out of the oversold zone. Short-term moving averages are gradually flattening out and turning upwards, providing underlying support for the gold price. The current short-term rebound rhythm is continuing, and the corrective phase is still ongoing. Although there is minor resistance above that limits the strength of the rise, it does not affect the short-term bullish bias. Short-term trading should primarily focus on buying on dips. In summary, the recommended trading approach for gold today is to primarily look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, with secondary consideration for selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the 4360-4410 range, while key short-term support below is focused around the 4280-4230 range.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Fundamental analysis for crude oil: In the early Asian trading hours on Monday (June 15th Beijing time), boosted by expectations of a rate hike being dampened, and due to the completion of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding text scheduled for signing on June 19th, US crude oil futures opened sharply lower with a gap of over 4%. The price touched a near two-month low of $80.25 per barrel and is currently trading around $81.10 per barrel. Oil prices closed lower on Friday, with Brent crude falling 2.64% to $86.74 per barrel, its lowest since early March. US crude oil fell 2.46% to close at $84.29 per barrel. This decline was influenced by traders' heightened expectations of an imminent US-Iran peace agreement. A Western source stated that a memorandum of understanding aimed at halting the Gulf war could be signed as early as Sunday, with Geneva as a possible location. However, Iran's foreign minister indicated that the memorandum has not yet been signed and its content may still change.
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