Abstract
Popular will report fourth-quarter results on January 27, 2026 Pre-Market. The preview aggregates company guidance and recent institutional commentary to frame expectations around revenue, profitability, and earnings per share, while highlighting the likely performance drivers and the balance of analyst sentiment into the print.
Market Forecast
The market’s current consensus suggests Popular’s fourth-quarter revenue near USD 699.44 million, adjusted EPS around USD 3.02, and EBIT approximately USD 348.00 million, with year-over-year growth of 18.15%, 47.12%, and 29.997%, respectively. Forecast details imply a constructive operating backdrop, though explicit gross profit margin and net profit margin guidance is not available. Popular’s reportable segments generated USD 813.43 million last quarter; the main business outlook emphasizes stable core banking activity, while the most promising area is the reportable segments line item, at USD 813.43 million last quarter, with supportive sequential trends.
Last Quarter Review
Popular delivered revenue of USD 646.51 million, a net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 211.00 million, a net profit margin of 28.46%, and adjusted EPS of USD 3.14; quarter-over-quarter net profit rose 0.42%, while revenue advanced 12.93% year-over-year. One notable highlight was adjusted EPS of USD 3.14, which exceeded the market’s estimate and reflected disciplined cost management against a steady interest-rate backdrop. Main business highlights center on the reportable segments contribution of USD 813.43 million, with year-over-year momentum implied by segment performance and continued efficiency gains across the franchise.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Banking Revenue and Earnings Trajectory
The company’s core banking operations anchor the quarter’s setup, with consensus revenue of USD 699.44 million and EPS of USD 3.02 indicating resilience in net interest and fee-based income. The sequential step-up versus the prior quarter’s USD 646.51 million revenue points to healthy loan balances and stable funding costs, which tend to support net interest effectiveness even amid mixed rate dynamics. While explicit gross margin data is absent, the net profit margin benchmark of 28.46% last quarter provides a reference for profitability discipline, suggesting the earnings mix could continue to skew toward interest income with controlled credit costs. If credit normalization remains manageable and deposit pricing remains rational, EBIT of USD 348.00 million would be consistent with the expected earnings conversion. The scenario to watch is any unexpected change in credit provisions or funding spreads that could alter the conversion rate from revenue to EPS.
Most Promising Business Line and Revenue Composition
The reportable segments category, at USD 813.43 million last quarter, underpins the strength of consolidated operations and signals scope for incremental growth as operating scale extends across lending and non-interest activities. The expected revenue increase to USD 699.44 million for the current quarter still aligns with growth of 18.15% year-over-year, indicating the primary engines—consumer and commercial banking services—retain momentum against cautious macro inputs. In the near term, fee-income streams, card volumes, and service charges can provide diversified support, cushioning net interest income variability. The interplay between deposit mix and loan repricing will be a determinant of segment earnings efficiency, and tracking YoY gains alongside volume indicators can validate the sustainability of this promising line.
Key Stock Price Drivers in the Quarter
Three dynamics will likely shape investor reactions around the print: earnings conversion relative to the USD 348.00 million EBIT forecast, the trajectory of adjusted EPS compared with USD 3.02, and the pace of revenue expansion vs. USD 699.44 million. A beat on EPS without quality issues such as one-off gains typically commands valuation support, but the market will scrutinize credit cost trends for signals on future profitability. Deposit betas and funding mix shifts remain focal points because they directly influence net interest effectiveness, and any stabilization there can enhance margin durability. Management commentary on loan demand, fee-income resilience, and operating efficiency will help investors assess whether performance is tracking toward the implied YoY growth rates and whether recent improvements are sustainable through fiscal 2026.
Analyst Opinions
Institutional sentiment skews bullish in the recent period. RBC Capital maintained a Buy rating with a USD 137.00 price target, and Wells Fargo also maintained a Buy with a USD 150.00 target, reflecting confidence in the revenue and earnings trajectory into the quarter. The bullish camp outweighs bearish views in collected commentary, suggesting expectations for steady net interest effectiveness, manageable credit costs, and adequate fee-income contributions to support the USD 3.02 EPS and USD 348.00 million EBIT forecasts. The common thread in these views is emphasis on operating discipline and the ability to sustain year-over-year growth rates near revenue’s 18.15% and EPS’s 47.12%, provided credit quality remains stable and funding conditions do not deteriorate. Investors will look to management’s narrative to confirm these assumptions and to gauge the visibility on the earnings pathway through the next few quarters.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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