According to an analysis by Zhuang Chuang Information, the international crude oil price has risen primarily due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East during this pricing cycle. Consequently, the domestic reference crude oil change rate has shifted from negative to positive. At 24:00 tomorrow (May 21), China's retail price ceiling for refined oil products is likely to be raised, which may result in a slight increase in fuel costs for consumers.
Calculations show that as of the close on May 19, the ninth working day, the reference crude oil change rate stood at 2.01%, with an expected increase of 90 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel. The price adjustment window is set for 24:00 on May 21. With one working day remaining until the window opens, an upward adjustment in the refined oil retail price ceiling is highly probable, and the final increase may exceed 100 yuan per ton.
Based on this estimate, the increase for 92# gasoline and 0# diesel is projected to be around 0.09 yuan per liter. Filling a 50-liter tank with 92# gasoline would cost approximately 4.5 yuan more. For consumers, this means that over the next half-month (from 24:00 on May 21 to 24:00 on June 4), fuel costs for personal vehicle use and logistics transportation may see a slight rise.
The specific adjustment amount will be subject to the final official announcement.
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