The economic data for the first two months of 2026, released this morning, indicates a "strong and favorable start," showcasing several positive developments. These reflect the sustained and improving trajectory of the Chinese economy, setting a positive tone for the year ahead. The positive changes are particularly evident in three key areas.
First, investment has shifted from decline to growth. In the first two months, national fixed-asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.8% year-on-year, a notable turnaround from the 3.8% decline recorded for the full previous year. This reversal is driven by multiple factors: the commencement of construction on a number of major infrastructure projects has spurred related investment growth. From January to February, infrastructure investment rose by 11.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 10.8 percentage points compared to the full previous year and contributing 3 percentage points to the overall investment growth. Furthermore, as industries continue to upgrade and move towards advanced and high-quality development, investment in new growth drivers shows strong momentum. High-tech industry investment grew by 5.1% year-on-year during the same period. Policies aimed at expanding effective investment, including continued promotion of key projects, support for large-scale equipment upgrades, and efforts to stimulate private investment, are demonstrating positive effects, enhancing the vitality and sustainability of investment.
Beyond investment, consumption has also performed well. Influenced by policies promoting consumption and the Spring Festival holiday period, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year in the first two months, with growth accelerating compared to December of the previous year, indicating a significant recovery in market sales. The domestic demand market represents a key potential strength for the Chinese economy. By stimulating latent consumer demand and expanding effective investment, this potential can be continuously unleashed.
Second, foreign trade shows robust growth. In the first two months, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 18.3% year-on-year, a significant acceleration compared to the growth rate for the entirety of last year. Since the beginning of the year, the international environment has been volatile, with rising external risks, particularly the spillover effects of geopolitical conflicts, creating considerable uncertainty for economies worldwide. Amid these changes, Chinese products continue to be favored in international markets due to their不断增强的竞争力. Looking at major trading partners, China's import and export growth with ASEAN, the EU, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative remained around 20%. The resilience of foreign trade is a fundamental strength of the Chinese economy. By adhering to mutual benefit, expanding economic and trade exchanges, and promoting high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, development space will continue to expand.
Third, industrial production has noticeably accelerated. From January to February, the value-added of industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 6.3% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points faster than the growth rate in December of the previous year. Among 41 major industrial categories, 31 saw their growth rates rebound compared to December, representing a recovery rate of 75.6%. Among over 600 key industrial products, more than 350 experienced accelerated growth, with a recovery rate close to 60%. In the first two months, new quality productive forces developed steadily, industrial production accelerated noticeably, and growth rates rebounded for the majority of industries and products. The real economy forms the foundation of the Chinese economy. By strengthening internal capabilities and consolidating its own foundations, the Chinese economy can maintain stability and composure amidst international fluctuations.
A strong start builds confidence. In the next stage, domestic and international challenges will intertwine, and numerous unstable and uncertain factors remain. However, the economic data for the first two months fully demonstrates that the underlying conditions supporting China's long-term economic growth and the fundamental positive trend remain unchanged. Through solid work to achieve great undertakings and innovation to secure the future, the Chinese economy will continue to advance steadily as always, achieving a favorable start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
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