Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited has released a research report stating that on July 13, 2026, the State Council officially approved the "15th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Consumption." This marks the first time China has systematically deployed a strategy to expand consumption through a five-year plan format. For the food and beverage industry, the current policy cycle is not merely about stimulating consumption. Instead, it aims to propel the industry into a new phase characterized by simultaneous demand improvement and structural upgrading, driven by three main thrusts: increasing household income, optimizing the consumption environment, and upgrading the consumption structure.
Looking at the current fundamental industry landscape, overall food and beverage consumption still faces certain pressures. The CSI Food & Beverage Industry Theme Index has retreated approximately 67% from its 2021 peak, placing sector valuations at historically low levels. Against the backdrop of intensified policies to promote consumption, leading companies possessing growth potential and valuation advantages are expected to witness a valuation recovery. The report suggests focusing on leading food and beverage enterprises characterized by high dividends, low debt, and stable operating cash flows, particularly in sub-sectors with anticipated fundamental improvements such as frozen foods, condiments, and leisure snacks.
Key Drivers for Sector Growth
The plan sets a target for total retail sales of consumer goods to reach around RMB 60 trillion by 2030. This figure stood at RMB 50.1 trillion at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating a potential incremental space of nearly RMB 10 trillion over five years. A core objective of this plan is to "significantly increase the household consumption rate." During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the average contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 58.8%, an increase of 10 percentage points from the "13th Five-Year Plan" period.
Guided by the RMB 60 trillion retail sales target, food and beverage, as a foundational category in household consumption, is expected to secure definite incremental opportunities alongside the overall expansion of consumption, constituting a systemic positive for basic consumption industries like food and beverage.
Policy Focus Shifts from Stimulus to Sustainable Growth
The most distinctive feature of this plan lies in its greater emphasis on enhancing residents' consumption capacity, rather than relying solely on subsidies or temporary stimulus measures. The plan proposes improving mechanisms for increasing household income, boosting wage income, property income, and social security levels. It also aims to expand service consumption, optimize the consumption environment, enrich new consumption scenarios, and actively develop digital consumption, green consumption, experiential consumption, and AI-driven consumption.
This shift signifies that future consumption growth will increasingly stem from the enhancement of residents' income capacity driving up the consumption rate, rather than from short-term policy stimulus. Given the high-frequency and essential nature of demand in the food and beverage industry, it stands to benefit from the growth in household income.
Expansion and Upgrade of Goods Consumption Benefits Multiple Segments
The plan explicitly calls for "upgrading goods consumption" and "steadily increasing consumption of daily goods." Specifically for the food and beverage field, the plan outlines the following key directions:
(1) Catering and Regional Brands: The plan requires "enhancing the quality of catering services, reinforcing food safety responsibilities of operators, implementing regional catering brand cultivation projects, and encouraging localities to build food agglomeration areas and specialty snack industry clusters." Upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain, such as catering supply chains, compound seasonings, and prepared dishes, will directly benefit from the trend towards quality upgrades and branding in catering consumption.
(2) Healthy Food: The "15th Five-Year Plan" further raises the target for average life expectancy to 80 years, shifting the focus from treating illness to promoting health. The plan dedicates significant attention to the health consumption sector. Health-oriented trends have become the most certain long-term direction for the food and beverage industry. Categories such as functional foods, health foods, and nutritional health beverages are expected to experience structural growth.
Potential Risks and Considerations
The report also highlights several risk factors: Policy implementation effects may fall short of expectations, with local supporting measures progressing slowly. The pace of macroeconomic recovery may be slower than anticipated, leading to a gradual repair of consumer confidence. Intensified industry competition and rising cost pressures could compress corporate profit margins. The short-term fundamentals of certain sub-sectors (such as baijiu and dairy) may still be in a consolidation phase, potentially leading to fluctuations in the valuation recovery process.
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