Goldman Sachs has released a research report projecting a global copper surplus of 490,000 tons this year, up from a previous estimate of 380,000 tons. The bank now expects the average copper price for the year to be $12,650 per ton, compared to an earlier forecast of $12,850 per ton, with the current futures price at $12,500.
According to the bank’s analytical framework, every 1 percentage point slowdown in global real GDP growth leads to an approximate 0.9 percentage point slowdown in global copper demand growth. Based on this relationship, Goldman Sachs economists have revised down their forecast for global refined copper demand growth to 1.6% year-on-year, from a prior estimate of 2%. This adjustment reflects an assumed 0.4 percentage point drag on global GDP growth due to energy price shocks.
The downward revision for copper is smaller than that for aluminum, as copper demand is increasingly strategic and structural in nature, making it less sensitive to the global economic cycle. In the near term, Goldman expects copper prices to remain volatile as markets continue to assess the impact of Middle East tensions on global growth.
Under the bank’s base case scenario, which assumes the resumption of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz from mid-April, risk assets—including copper—are expected to find support. Additionally, the bank’ economists maintain their baseline expectation of two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, contrasting with market pricing that suggests no cuts this year. This divergence also supports risk assets.
Looking further ahead, Goldman forecasts an average copper price of $12,700 per ton in the second quarter of 2026, as speculative positioning may recover under the base case scenario. However, the bank maintains its medium-term view that prices will moderate slightly to $12,000 per ton in the second half of 2026.
Beyond the next two years, Goldman Sachs continues to project that copper prices will rise to $15,000 per ton by 2035. Recent Middle East developments may further strengthen the electrification theme—given growing reliance on grid systems for defense and energy security—which would in turn support copper demand growth.
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