Optical communications and photonics company Lumentum (LITE.US) has indicated that demand for its products continues to outpace its supply capabilities. Following this announcement, several Wall Street institutions expressed optimistic views, suggesting that AI infrastructure development is driving the industry into a new period of high growth. Analysts Ryan Koontz and Jeffrey Hopson from Needham noted that the company is accelerating the expansion of its indium phosphide wafer fabrication and optical module production capacity by focusing capital expenditures, supported by long-term customer purchase agreements. The analysts believe that a multi-billion dollar backlog in optical circuit switching systems and orders for co-packaged optics lasers, which currently contribute close to zero revenue, are expected to significantly boost revenue growth starting in the second half of 2026. Needham maintained its "Buy" rating on Lumentum with a $1,040 price target and continues to list the company as a "Top Pick." The firm highlighted that Lumentum has held this status for 16 consecutive months, citing the company's significant advantages in optical communications and photonics technologies required for AI, cloud computing, and next-generation communication networks. Following the earnings report, Needham raised its profit forecasts for the company. The firm now expects Lumentum's fiscal 2026 revenue to reach $2.99 billion, up from a prior estimate of $2.92 billion, while fiscal 2027 revenue was increased from $5 billion to $5.5 billion. Concurrently, the fiscal 2026 earnings per share estimate was raised from $7.97 to $8.38, and the fiscal 2027 estimate was increased from $16.47 to $17.68. Morgan Stanley analysts stated that Lumentum's leading position in electro-absorption modulated lasers (EML) and pump lasers allows the company to continue raising prices and expanding profitability amid extremely tight supply conditions. The analysts pointed out that market demand for these products continues to grow, and the company's pricing power is not expected to weaken significantly in the near term. Furthermore, large-scale volume production for new products like optical circuit switching and co-packaged optics has not yet truly begun, indicating potential for further growth. Consequently, Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Lumentum from $710 to $900, while maintaining an "Equal-weight" rating. GF Securities analysts noted that the company's management emphasized that the supply-demand imbalance is still widening, with current supply capacity approximately 30% lower than demand. Even with plans to increase capacity by about 50% year-over-year, the market remains undersupplied. The analysts believe that key products, including EMLs, pump lasers, and narrow linewidth lasers, are essentially sold out, with pump lasers becoming an even more severe bottleneck than EMLs. Although the company is expanding capacity through long-term supply agreements and new wafer fab investments, demand growth continues to outpace supply expansion, necessitating product allocation to customers. GF Securities maintained its "Buy" rating on Lumentum with a $1,168 price target. Driven by the boom in AI data center construction, the optical communications industry chain has recently garnered significant market attention. Lumentum's competitor Coherent (COHR.US) rose approximately 1% in early Wednesday trading, while Fabrinet (FN.US) gained about 2%.
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