On December 11, domestic GPU leader Moore Thread continued its meteoric rise, surging from its IPO price of 114.28 yuan to a peak of 688 yuan on its first trading day. It has since broken through 700, 800, and 900 yuan, now approaching the 1,000-yuan milestone. The extent of the bubble is evident to all.
According to the company's financial reports, from 2022 to 2024, its revenues were 46.09 million, 124 million, and 438 million yuan, respectively. Over the past three years, R&D expenditures totaled 3.81 billion yuan—6.26 times its revenue. Due to heavy investment in R&D, the company has remained in a loss-making state. Per its prospectus, losses from 2022 to 2024 were 1.84 billion, 1.673 billion, and 1.492 billion yuan, respectively, totaling 5 billion yuan over three years. In comparison, rival MuXi reported losses of around 3 billion yuan during the same period, making Moore Thread’s losses even steeper. Net cash flow from operations showed outflows of 1.4 billion, 1.1 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan, while R&D expenditures were 1.116 billion, 1.334 billion, and 1.359 billion yuan, totaling 3.8 billion yuan over three years. The latest prospectus updates show mid-2025 revenue of approximately 700 million yuan and a loss of 271 million yuan—still burning cash but narrowing significantly.
Despite being a domestic GPU leader deserving of a valuation premium, a 440 billion yuan valuation on 1.5 billion yuan in revenue is excessive, resembling a "dream valuation" or "probability valuation." For context, Cambricon, with annual revenue of around 6 billion yuan, has a market cap of 580 billion yuan. A reasonable valuation for Moore Thread would be around 200 billion yuan, yet its current market cap exceeds Cambricon’s by a tier.
Behind Moore Thread’s surge—aside from its GPU leadership premium—is extreme scarcity and high concentration of shares, fueling frenzied speculation by retail investors and institutions. Pre-IPO, Moore Thread had 400 million shares locked up. The IPO issued 70 million shares, with 14 million allocated to strategic investors. Due to an over-subscription trigger, 16.8 million shares were allotted online with a lottery rate as low as 0.036%, while 39.2 million shares went to institutional investors, including mutual funds, private equity (including quant), insurers, brokerages, and asset managers. Of these, 20% of strategic shares are locked up, with lead underwriter CITIC Securities’ 1.4 million shares locked for two years and others for one year. Of the 39.2 million institutional shares, 26.62 million are locked for at least six months, mostly nine months. Thus, the total free float is 16.8 million + 12.58 million = 29.38 million shares, accounting for just 6.25% of total shares. At the IPO price of 114.28 yuan, the initial float was only 3.4 billion yuan. Even at the current price of 941 yuan, the float is just 27.6 billion yuan. With such a small float, even retail investors or big players can drive the price up.
When asked whether institutions are fueling the speculation, a finance industry insider remarked, "Institutions wouldn’t touch this—risk control would stop them." Notably, STAR Market IPOs have no price limits for the first five trading days, but starting tomorrow, the limit will revert to 20%, potentially cooling Moore Thread’s rally. Whether the sub-30 billion yuan float will continue to be manipulated is unclear, but once lock-up periods expire, the fallout could be severe. As of now, Moore Thread’s market cap stands at 440 billion yuan, trailing only Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) at 540 billion yuan and Cambricon at 580 billion yuan—making Moore Thread a formidable contender.
Recently, a sell-side analyst couldn’t hold back: "Why are primary market players still worried? History has shown repeatedly—there’s no shortage of retail investors in the secondary market." The phrasing may be crude, but the logic is sound.
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