In 2025, global financial markets experienced heightened volatility amid geopolitical tensions and monetary policy adjustments. However, the commodity market delivered a mixed yet standout performance, with gold and silver-related funds emerging as the year’s top performers. Some funds even posted near-doubled returns, capturing investor attention, while energy and chemical commodity funds faced downward pressure.
As 2025 draws to a close, this article reviews the performance trajectory of commodity funds and analyzes the key drivers behind their movements. More critically, it explores whether commodity funds will remain an attractive investment in 2026.
Wind data shows that, as of December 19, 2025, commodity funds presented a stark divergence—most delivered positive returns, particularly gold and silver-related funds. Over 50 such funds (calculated separately by share class) posted gains exceeding 50%, making them one of the most eye-catching sectors in the fund market this year.
Silver funds demonstrated particularly explosive growth. Over the past month, rising silver prices propelled related funds to soaring returns. For instance, the SDIC Essence Silver Futures Fund (A and C shares) achieved year-to-date returns of 98.27% and 97.52%, respectively, nearing a doubling of capital and cementing their status as the year’s dark horses.
However, while gold and silver funds surged, internal divergence within the commodity fund space was evident. Some energy and chemical-focused products saw significant pullbacks. For example, the CCB E Fund Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Energy & Chemical Futures ETF saw a year-to-date decline exceeding 20% as of December 19, starkly contrasting with the stellar performance of precious metals funds. This highlights how different commodity sectors respond to cyclical and supply-demand dynamics.
As 2026 approaches, market participants are closely evaluating commodity fund opportunities. Gold remains widely favored by institutions, while silver, copper, and other industrial metals are also gaining attention.
The Ant Investment Research team noted in its “Wealth Insights” report: “We maintain a positive outlook on gold while also monitoring opportunities in silver, copper, and other non-ferrous metals.”
The team added, “With gold near historical highs, markets are more sensitive to negative factors, but underlying demand supports buying on dips, likely amplifying price volatility. In the absence of further catalysts—such as escalating geopolitical conflicts or unexpected Fed rate cuts—gold may consolidate within a range. Given its global pricing, overseas institutions largely maintain a bullish full-year outlook, despite short-term fluctuations.”
Gu Fanding, manager of CITIC-Prudential Global Commodity Theme Fund, commented: “In the current environment, gold offers better risk-reward than silver or industrial metals. Gold’s strong financial attributes make it a ‘credit hedge,’ tied to monetary credibility and geopolitical risks, with performance less tied to economic cycles—ideal for long-term holdings. Silver, however, has a smaller market, lower liquidity, and is prone to manipulation (e.g., short squeezes), leading to volatile, noise-driven price swings that may not justify long-term risks.”
“Industrial metals like copper have rallied recently on AI infrastructure demand expectations, but prices already reflect optimistic capex assumptions. If Fed rate cuts disappoint or AI-related power and infrastructure investments slow, these metals could face sharp corrections. Thus, compared to timing-sensitive silver and industrial metals, gold’s investment thesis is more independent and stable, better suited for long-term allocations aligned with risk tolerance,” Gu added.
Other industry experts noted varying prospects across commodities: Industrial metals like copper and aluminum may benefit from AI-driven power demand and renewable energy storage needs, creating supply-demand mismatches and bullish sentiment. Precious metals like gold and silver have shown strength, but their 2026 trajectory hinges on Fed rate-cut cycles and global political-economic trends. Energy metals and crude oil, more closely tied to global growth, warrant a neutral stance.
Looking ahead to 2026, institutions generally advise a prudent approach—diversifying allocations and targeting structural opportunities while avoiding overconcentration in single sectors.
Yingmi Orient Golden Smith Advisory suggested a structural divergence in 2026 commodities, favoring gold and industrial metals like copper and aluminum. They recommend limiting commodity fund exposure to under 10% of portfolios and avoiding overweight positions in any single sector.
Ant Investment Research emphasized a macro asset-allocation perspective, advocating a “three-cross” strategy (cross-region, cross-asset, cross-strategy) with a “core + opportunistic” approach. They highlighted the role of “dividend+, gold+, U.S. stocks+, fixed income+” strategies in portfolio optimization.
Industry insiders proposed a “core + satellite” allocation—holding industrial metals and gold as long-term core positions while tactically trading energy metals and oil for short-term gains. This balances steady returns with opportunistic upside.
In summary, 2026 commodity fund investing demands both expertise and risk management. Conservative investors may prioritize gold-focused funds, while those with higher risk tolerance and analytical skills could explore industrial and non-ferrous metals—provided they maintain strict position controls and profit/loss discipline.
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