Today (December 17), the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876), which aggregates industry leaders in the nonferrous metals sector, showed strong upward momentum, with an intraday gain of 1.92% and currently up 1.81%. Notably, the ETF attracted 10.13 million yuan in inflows yesterday alone. Over the past 20 days, cumulative inflows reached 198 million yuan, reflecting bullish sentiment toward the sector's future performance and active capital deployment.
As of December 16, the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) has a latest size of 840 million yuan, making it the largest ETF among three products tracking the same underlying index in the market.
Among its constituents, Guocheng Mining hit the daily limit up, while Chengxin Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. (002240) surged over 7%. Sinomine Resource and Yahua Group both rose more than 5%, followed by strong gains in Tianqi Lithium, Zhongfu Industrial, Yongxing Materials, and Xingye Silver Tin.
Market catalysts include weak U.S. employment data, with November nonfarm payrolls adding just 64,000 jobs and the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbing to 4.6%—a four-year high. October job losses of 105,000 also missed expectations. Following the report, spot gold rallied, gaining 0.43% intraday. Analysts suggest the data signals a "gradual cooling" labor market, with traders still pricing in two Fed rate cuts by 2026.
CITIC Securities believes that as long as the Fed remains on a rate-cutting path (with further cuts anticipated), nonferrous metals prices retain upward momentum. Orient Securities notes that during Fed easing cycles, physically tight commodities—even with minor supply-demand gaps—can exhibit significant price elasticity. The current cycle may herald a "supercycle" for industrial metals like copper and aluminum.
How long could this supercycle last? Industry experts highlight three key factors: the recovery of U.S. dollar credibility, strategic stockpiling progress, and anti-overcapacity policy effectiveness. Given these conditions, the nonferrous metals supercycle will likely persist through 2026. A weaker dollar cycle, policy support, and industrial upgrades are reducing equity opportunity costs and improving risk premiums, presenting opportunities for the upcoming "spring rally."
[Cyclical Upswing Arrives: "Nonferrous Bull Run" May Continue] Different nonferrous metals exhibit varying growth drivers and cycles, making sector divergence inevitable. For broad exposure to the sector's beta, the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its linked funds (Class A: 017140; Class C: 017141) provide diversified coverage across copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium—offering risk dispersion compared to single-commodity investments.
Risk Disclosure: The Nonferrous Metals ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (base date: December 31, 2013; launch date: July 13, 2015). The index's annual returns for the past five years are: 2020: +35.84%; 2021: +35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: +2.96%. Constituent adjustments follow index methodology, and historical performance does not guarantee future results. Constituent mentions are illustrative and not investment advice or indicative of fund holdings. The fund is rated R3 (moderate risk) for balanced (C3) or higher risk-profile investors. Investment decisions based on this information are solely at the investor's discretion. No content herein constitutes investment advice, and the publisher assumes no liability for direct or indirect losses from its use. Past fund performance does not predict future returns, and other funds' performance does not guarantee this fund's results. Invest with caution.
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